Karina’s Column: 2026 Top Billing
‘Afan de protagonismo’ is a Spanish phrase, loosely translated as ‘an insatiable hunger for the limelight.’ It will dominate 2026 as the most powerful global leaders jostle for attention.
President Donald Trump’s isolationist/America First foreign policy, much touted in his days as a presidential candidate, has been flipped on its head with the ousting of President Nicolas Maduro and the plan for the US to "run" Venezuela.
This follows from the recently published US National Security Strategy, which established a revised Monroe Doctrine, an apparent turning inward to America’s ‘backyard’.
However, before concluding US attention will be focused on its neighbours, it is worth noting that in the second half of 2025 it bombed Iran, Syria and Nigeria. Additionally, in the first days of 2026 Trump threatened the Iranian regime with revenge if they killed protesters currently demonstrating in Tehran and other cities.
The corollary to Saturday’s military action is to deny Cuba the Venezuelan oil sold to it at knock-down rates. If around 40% of the island’s imported oil disappears, this could well spell the end of a regime – one that has failed to fulfil its population’s basic needs for many years.
What a coup that would be for Donald Trump! To bring Cuba back into the American sphere of influence would secure his legacy. There have been over 65 years of failed attempts ranging from President Kennedy’s Bay of Pigs to the CIA’s exploding cigars for Fidel Castro. It would also secure the Cuban-American vote.
It is not clear how the Venezuelan situation will play out. What is clear is that there will be a massive increase in refugee numbers, destabilising neighbours like Colombia. Foreign Direct Investment into countries where Trump disapproves of the leader will fall off a cliff. And US companies taking over oil production in Venezuela will need protection. US military ‘boots on the ground’ will not play well in the upcoming mid-term elections.
The National Security document used language that was more respectful of the Russians than the Europeans, but that won’t be enough to wean President Vladimir Putin’s off his ‘afan de protagonismo’ and lead him to accept a world order with pre-determined spheres of influence.
“Russia will continue to “export chaos”, in the words of Blaise Metreweli, the new head of MI6, the UK intelligence service. It continually denies blowing up Polish railway tracks, disrupting air travel with drones, cyberattacks, and creating polarisation with its disinformation factories.
The toppling of the Venezuelan regime and a de facto annexation of the country also gives Putin a green light in Ukraine. Additionally, it sends the wrong signal on Taiwan to President Xi Jing Ping of China.
His ‘afan de protagonismo’ has already been fed “simply by waiting for strategic gifts to come his way,” according to FT columnist Edward Luce. These range from the US climbdown on punitive tariffs, to Trump’s 180-degree turn on the export of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China, to the US administration’s openly targeting regime change in Europe.
The takeover of Taiwan now looks more justifiable in the context of ‘spheres of influence’, while the pressure is on Xi to show off China’s military prowess following the US’s remarkable demonstration of geopolitical power.
Meanwhile, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), an institution under threat from Trump’s clear lack of interest in Europe’s security, is stepping up its actions and rhetoric. Its top commander recently said that being more aggressive or proactive instead of reactive in response to cyberwarfare was under consideration.
It is likely that companies will become more involved in proactive measures against bad actors, no longer leaving cyber defence to overwhelmed intelligence services. The banking sector is reputed to already be active in offensive cyber operations, most likely with the connivance of the intelligent services. Expect Artificial Intelligence (AI) start-ups in that space to begin coming out of stealth mode.
In the words of a former top executive at GCHQ, “It is time to disrupt the bad guys.”
Also to be anticipated in 2026 is a deepening of ‘localisation’, a nationalist view of economic relations on the back of the shaky state of long-standing protective alliances.
Take Switzerland, which in December decided not to proceed with using US tech firm Palantir for government use. Accepting the services of a US tech company is, at least in one respect, not unlike accepting those of a Chinese one: excellent product, but you are putting yourself at the mercy of a state whose priorities in difficult times will not be yours.
The US government will funnel increased amounts into quantum technology firms in 2026, be it through grants, loans or equity stakes, aware of the dangers of another country taking the lead in this transformative technology. In fact, China is already perceived to lead in some areas like quantum communication. European countries, ranging from Germany to Spain, are likely to also invest in local quantum technology companies in an attempt to guarantee sovereignty.
Switzerland highlights another continuing trend, the realignment of the international order. A tweet from the federal government in December stated: “In light of the deteriorating security situation, the Swiss government is realigning Switzerland’s security policy.”
Might Switzerland ditch its two centuries old neutrality policy and join NATO? After all, Sweden did so in 2024. Neutral Ireland is looking very vulnerable, following cyberattacks on its health services and public sector websites credited to Russian cybercrime networks, even as naval intrusions and surveillance rose in 2025. As an island, its dependence on undersea cables is even more significant than that of countries that are part of a larger landmass.
The one certainty for 2026 is a continuing rise in the research and development of weapons. From December’s first time use of underwater drones by Ukraine to (reportedly) disable a submarine, to the ever-more-sophisticated AI used to programme human behaviour, technology will evolve at pace.
The consolation for this negative is that technology for good will also evolve, while not investing would be even more disastrous, a recipe for subservience to the will of others.
In September in Shanghai, President Xi and President Putin were caught talking about organ transplants and longevity. It would be advantageous for them and for President Trump, intent on strutting the world stage, to remember Macbeth’s famous lines:
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more.