Societal Attitudes on Defence Spending and Investment Need to Change

In the face of new state security threats, society needs to be more willing to accept the role of the defence sector.

Weapons maim. Weapons kill. They do not distinguish between children and combatants. However uncomfortable, we need to have a national conversation about producing them and financing them.

There is only one option if we are to avoid war, and that is to prepare for it.

Calls for conscription, as the UK’s most senior army officer, General Sir Patrick Sanders promoted in February, are a distraction, especially in countries such as the UK and Germany which do not share a border with Russia. That heightened sense of danger exists in Finland, which received a wave of Yemeni and Syrian refugees in recent years, courtesy of Russia’s actions. Or consider the Baltic states: in January they agreed to build defensive installations on their borders with Russia and Belarus.

For those countries bordering Russia, there are lessons to learn from Sweden, NATO’s newest member. The invasion of Ukraine was what finally pushed the country – its maritime border with Russia subject to regular submarine incursions – to abandon almost 200 years of neutrality and officially join the Alliance. This was not done through a referendum, but a parliamentary vote. As a top Swedish foreign affairs official said at the time in a private conversation, this ensured there was less opportunity for the enemy to launch a major disinformation campaign aimed at polarising the country.

Clear political leadership is an important component in changing the national conversation. France’s President Emmanuel Macron is becoming more combative, abandoning France’s historically more equivocal position towards Russia. The same is true of Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister. Spain’s Pedro Sanchez has taken a different stance: he asked EU leaders to avoid using the word ‘war’ in their summit declarations as people felt threatened.

A sense of threat is exactly what is needed. Governments must reveal more of the ‘liminal’ warfare – operations that are difficult to attribute and often non-violent – to their populations. It is no coincidence that, on the same day in March, the US and the UK publicly revealed a series of ‘prolific’ cyber attacks by Beijing over the past few years.

Reaching out to the civilian population at large is another strategy. The South by Southwest film, music and tech festival, which gathers technologists and creatives and takes place in March in Austin, Texas, this year counted the US Army and Collins Aerospace as sponsors. Demonstrations and a boycott by a handful of artists did not stop the festival going ahead with a massive turnout.

Calls for conscription are a distraction, especially in countries such as the UK and Germany which do not share a border with Russia

An education campaign is necessary within the Deep Tech community – a Silicon Valley entrepreneur pointed out that managers above a certain age did not see an issue with working on military technology, while younger employees brought up in the relatively peaceful era after the fall of the Berlin Wall were opposed.

The first steps have been taken. Venture capital investment into defence technology doubled to $33 billion in the five years to 2023. And organisations such as Mission Link in the US bring together the defence establishment and tech start-ups in a bid to ensure the slow-moving bureaucracy and big-company favouritism of government procurement can be side-stepped.

Worth noting is that Katrina Mulligan, former chief of staff to the secretary of the US Army, was hired by OpenAI this February. The Chat-GPT maker in January altered its usage policies to allow ‘military and warfare’ applications. Again, the protests that arose on the back of the change ultimately petered out.

A change of mentality is also needed in the investor community. Other than private sector funds specialising in defence or government entities such as the UK’s National Security Strategic Investment Fund, institutional investors face the conundrum of ESG (environmental, social and governance) categorisation. It is ludicrous that defence is classified alongside pornography and tobacco as a no-go area, but changing the criteria would be a public relations disaster for individual firms, noted a Scandinavian fund manager who advises on ethics in a private conversation.

Hence moves to amend OECD guidelines, for instance, or the capacity of EU institutions to buy weapons using its shared budget, are a step in the right direction. Deeper pools of capital are necessary: NATO’s European members face a shortfall of €56 billion a year to meet the Alliance’s defence spending target, which at 2% of GDP is, in any case, arguably too low for a threatening new era.

William Burns, director of the CIA, wrote recently in Foreign Affairs that: ‘Success will depend on blending traditional human intelligence with emerging technologies’.

To achieve this, governments, academia and companies need to work on a civilian acceptance of a significant increase in the manufacture and funding of arms production, both offensive, defensive and dual use, through public campaigns and national conversations. Without civil society’s agreement, current funding will not suffice to modernise the military capability of the West enough to, at the very least, deter attacks.

Governments, academia and companies need to work on a civilian acceptance of a significant increase in the manufacture and funding of arms production

The narrative needs to be altered. The Apollo space programme of the 1960s and 70s, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the US military’s technology innovator, have markedly contributed to society – from autonomous cars to the internet. Ultimately, virtually all technology is dual use, from drones to lasers to robots.

Initiatives such as Hacking for the Ministry of Defence (H4MoD), which originated at Stanford University, encourages university students to develop innovative ideas in response to real-world defence problems.

It is not an impossible feat. Ideas that were taboo are now mainstream, whether in defence – such as Sweden joining NATO – or for other social issues, such as society’s acceptance of mental health or the right of women to vote.

‘I want my kids to live in an open society’, says Scott Faris, a successful entrepreneur who felt the call to return to lead Infleqtion, a quantum and AI firm that works with the UK’s defence technology company QuinetiQ and DARPA in the US, and just moved on to lead Equlipse Quantum.

When North Korea has the capacity to knock a satellite out of the sky, hostile countries can buy lethal equipment on the web, and Russian President Vladimir Putin credibly threaten the use of nuclear weapons as a response to the West’s support of Ukraine, Polish leader Donald Tusk’s words sound less alarmist and increasingly true:

‘I know it sounds devastating, especially to people of the younger generation, but we have to mentally get used to the arrival of a new era. The pre-war era’.

The views expressed in this Commentary are the author’s, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.

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Quantum Matters: Quantum & AI – Early Days For A Killer Combination

Guest Post by Karina Robinson

Artificial Intelligence (AI) suffers from two massive blocks: colossal, costly energy use and a transparency deficit. The technology can be technically feasible but is still too expensive for most organisations to consider it. That was the conclusion of a recent paper from MIT Future Tech, which looked at computer vision tasks as an example of an AI-enabled technology. But the MIT group isn’t alone in highlighting the problem.

The computing cost of Deep Learning is exploding. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, made it clear last year that training ever larger Language Learning Models (LLM) is not the way to advance AI, not least because teaching GPT-4, its latest product, cost over $100m, while by 2027 it is estimated that the AI industry could consume as much power as a country the size of the Netherlands.

On the openness front, the models are far too opaque – usable in consumer applications but a legal minefield for companies to consider rolling out. Their tendency to ‘invent’ plausible facts is also not helpful.

Quantum is the route through which AI’s limitations can be lifted.

Two perception issues are delaying the advance. Firstly, there is an impediment to AI/Quantum cooperation based on misapprehensions that quantum is only about hardware – creating a quantum computer with enough power to break current encryption. That is unlikely to happen for several years. It may take up acres of media space, but much more advanced are quantum sensors, some of which are already in the market, while in quantum communication the Chinese are apparently more advanced, and quantum software/quantum-inspired software is advancing at pace. All of these are based on quantum physics and applicable to AI in different ways.

The second issue is the silo mentality of many of the companies involved in these fields, who have separate divisions for AI and Quantum, or only concentrate on one. Nevertheless, more visionary firms are breaking through the barrier.

Scott Faris, CEO of US firm Infleqtion says, “The convergence of AI and Quantum is one of the most powerful combinations that we are starting to unlock. The convergence will have both immediate and long-term implications.”

Karina Robinson is Senior Advisor to Multiverse Computing and Founder of The City Quantum & AI Summit

The firm, which manufactures quantum products and parts, ranging from sensors to computer hardware, counts NASA as one of its clients. Faris points out that quantum-enabled technologies are “quickly demonstrating their utility in addressing the crushing data infrastructure scaling challenges driven by AI. Scaled networks of quantum sensors will create vast new data sets of unparalleled precision and value which will be unlocked by parallel advancements in AI.”

A case in point is CompactifAI, the product launched late last year by Multiverse Computing*. Europe’s largest quantum software and quantum-inspired software firm, which counts Bosch and the Bank of Canada among its clients, uses its technology to compress the data from a Large Language Model (LLM) by up to 70%, thus using much less computing power, and achieve results that are comparable in quality.

“Left on its own, AI is going to burn the world by consuming intolerable levels of energy,” says CEO Enrique Lizaso. His firm, shortlisted as one of three finalists in the European Future Unicorn Award, is using its AI and quantum-inspired capabilities in fields ranging from forecasting weather catastrophes – on the increase with global warming – to helping car manufacturers in the training of their Machine Vision.

This is done on the premises of the industrial site, rather than data processing centres, with faster retraining of the multiple streams of data, reduced processing power requirements and added security.

Lizaso is adamant that the cross over between AI and Quantum is environmentally helpful in other ways. He notes that optimising routes for shipping, for instance, or optimising the amount of fuel tankers need for a journey, cuts back on the carbon footprint of the ship.

Nvidia, best known as the AI chip market leader, is also keen on quantum.

“AI is accelerating quantum computing today. We’re starting to see researchers tap into the mature infrastructure of AI and accelerated computing to leverage things like Large Language Models (LLMs) to develop new quantum algorithms and improve the performance of quantum computers,” says Tim Costa, who leads the HPC and Quantum Computing Product Team.

“We are just starting to scratch the surface of how Gen AI can improve quantum computing,” he adds, noting however, that in the near term researchers are already investigating quantum machine learning (QML) and quantum-inspired methods for financial applications like fraud detection and forecasting.

Recently, researchers from the University of Toronto, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital and NVIDIA developed a new quantum algorithm called the “GPT-Quantum Eigensolver.” It uses the framework of generative AI models to generate quantum circuits with desirable properties, in this case to calculate the ground state energy of molecules of interest. Versions of this generative quantum algorithm can be applied towards important problems in drug and new materials discovery, as well as a host of other applications, some of which we cannot even imagine.

As for the problem with the unclear thinking process of AI, and its fantasising, quantum is also part of the answer.  To use it more widely, the interpretability of the system is key – in essence understanding why a system makes the decisions it does so it can be held accountable. Only last week Quantinuum, formed from the merger of Cambridge Quantum and Honeywell Quantum, announced a first public step in creating AI that is “interpretable and accountable” via the development of a framework for compositional models of AI using a type of maths called category theory. Their academic paper has yet to be peer reviewed.

Humankind’s biggest challenges will not be solved tomorrow by the combination of Quantum & AI. Nevertheless, at the risk of creating a hostage to fortune, I would predict many will be solved in the next decades by those firms at the forefront of the Quantum & AI journey.

*Karina Robinson is Senior Advisor to Multiverse Computing and Founder of The City Quantum & AI Summit which takes place on Monday, October 7th.

TQI Exclusive: 2023’S The City Quantum and AI Summit On A Mission To Create An Accessible, Inclusive And Entrepreneurial Quantum Community

The City Quantum and AI Summit 2023 will take place on Monday, October 2 at the Mansion House. The event brings together the City and the Quantum Community in the heart of the City of London for the third time. We talked to Karina Robinson, CEO of Redcliffe Advisory, founder of The City Quantum and AI Summit and senior adviser to Multiverse Computing, about this year’s edition of this unique quantum event, designed to take an inclusive approach that invites all elements of science and society to help usher in the quantum era.

What’s the mission of The City Quantum and AI Summit?

I’m glad you mentioned the word ‘mission’ for it truly is that! Our mission three years ago was to create a small conference – around 200 people, with only 60 at dinner – where CEOs, Chairs and the C-suite in financial service firms would meet and hear from their peers in quantum firms. Three years on our rules are the same: no lingo, no jargon from any panelist. As a result, they convey in English understandable to the lay person why end users should adopt and invest in quantum technologies.

Why is it always at the Mansion House, the home of the Lord Mayor of the City of London?

Too many conferences consist of quantum people talking to each other in charmless venues of interchangeable homogeneity. We wanted to create deals and business opportunities for the industry in the heart of the City of London. And the heart of City of London is right here in the Mansion House a British gilded palace, but one that is truly global in its outlook: it houses the Egyptian Hall, complete with Roman statues, and in the other rooms you will see one of the finest collections of Dutch Old Master paintings.  The conference attracts increasing numbers of major decision makers from those far-sighted companies that already embrace quantum or may be thinking of it.

What excites you most about the Summit this year?

The Summit’s vision has always been very matter of fact in growing the quantum ecosphere. But there has to be room for the madness of the science – for surely there is a craziness to entanglement, a mind-blowing unreality to superposition? Thus The City Quantum and AI Summit commissioned a film on quantum from artist Marina Landia with music by techno musician Ila, which he composed on Amazon’s Braket. I can promise you a movie premiere to end all premieres at its showing on October 2nd!

The Head of the NATO Innovation Fund is giving a keynote. How does the military fit into the equation?

I was involved in brainstorming NATO’s Quantum Strategy over two sessions this spring. I am a total believer in dual purpose technology, civilian and military, and the many synergies to be achieved in collaboration. Additionally, the threat to our imperfect democracies with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought home the importance of keeping NATO at the forefront of technological innovation.

Quantum technology is such an advanced technology — will attendees be mainly scientists?

No, no, no! The quantum world has more than its fair share of them, but panels are generally moderated by VIP ‘outsiders’. Their names ensure bankers, business people and other non-scientists feel comfortable attending in person or online.

For instance, Diana Brightmore-Armour, CEO of the UK’s 350-year old private bank, C Hoare & Co. chairs the panel on Financing Quantum – dream or nightmare?; William McDonnell, COO of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) chairs the panel on using quantum for environmental purposes; while lawyer Julia Black OBE, who is member of the Prime Minister’s Council on Science and Technology, chairs the panel on AI & Quantum – Today and Tomorrow.

And we are hosted by Alderman and Professor Michael Mainelli, who will be Lord Mayor (Ambassador) for the City of London from November.

If your business isn’t directly tied to quantum, is there any value for business leaders to attend?

There is no such thing as a business that won’t benefit. At its most basic, quantum is about simulation and optimisation, and beneficial for sectors as diverse, for example, as drug discovery or supply chains, or in de-risking financial portfolios and undersea sensing.

There is also no such thing as a business that won’t be harmed by its decryption potential.

The City Quantum and AI Summit has already gained a reputation as a persuasive advocate for democratization and inclusion within the quantum community. Can we expect more in this year’s summit?

Without a community effort to strengthen Diversity & Inclusion (D&I) we are going to create an ecosphere of $450-$850 billion a dozen years from now which will suffer from group think and exclusionary practices.

Therefore the Summit is sticking to its two principles of free for all comers, to ensure students and young professionals attend, and gender balance on all panels.

We are holding the annual brainstorming D&I lunch. It counts on the participation of the London School of Economics’s (LSE) The Inclusion Initiative, an institute that creates inclusive cultures in businesses, and DiviQ (what’s that?), the new D&I organisation for the quantum industry, as well as City Big Wigs like Michael Cole-Fontayn, Board member at JP Morgan Securities and a great advocate for the cause.

Last year we produced a LSE briefing and we hope to do the same this year.

What’s special about the dinner?

It’s in the Old Ballroom amid gilded candelabras –a striking contraposition of tradition with the latest technology – and will feature a conversation between whurley of Strangeworks and Dame Elisabeth Corley, Chair of Schroders and the Impact Investing Institute. Boutique investment bank Perella Weinberg, with its Deep Tech specialty, is kindly sponsoring it.

Tell us about the panels — it looks like quite a list of experts and thought leaders.

We have stalwarts like Jay Lowell of Boeing, Roman Orus of Multiverse Computing, Nadia Carlsten of SandboxAQ, Lory Thorpe of GSMA, Denise Ruffner of Women in Quantum, Luke Ibbetson of Vodafone, Carmen Palacios-Berraquero of NuQuantum, Scott Faris of Infleqtion, llana Wisby of OQC investors like Candace Johnson of Seraphim, Stuart Woods of Quantum Exponential, Ekaterina Almasque of Open Ocean; for financial applications Georgios Korpas of HSBC and Michael Dascal of Fidelity; for pharmaceuticals Lene Oddershede of Novo Nordisk.

Any new features at The City Quantum and AI Summit 2023?

We are delighted to support the Institute for Physics (IOP) and Quantum Exponentials’ qBIG award to Cerca Magnetics, as well as its call for applications for the 2024 prize. And delighted too that our Media Partners are once again The Quantum Insider and Quantum London!

For registration, click here.

Will quantum computing, not AI, define our future?

The interaction between quantum and AI is the most exciting development in modern-day technologies. The hype cycle is focused on AI, but in the words of Lord (William) Hague, speaking recently at Imperial College: “Quantum computers can provide AI with the computational firepower needed to unlock their full potential. This means that if the country can lead on quantum computers, we can secure a lead on AI. And if we fall behind on quantum, we will likely fall behind on AI.”

The essence of quantum is that it isn’t binary – even today’s supercomputers are – but instead allows for multiple possibilities at the same time, making it ideal for optimisation problems. And the UK has the second largest number of quantum start-ups in the world, plus a £2.5bn quantum strategy.

There are two misapprehensions about quantum. The first is that it is prohibitively expensive because of the construction costs of a quantum computer and the environment in which it needs to be kept. In fact, companies can access time on one via the Cloud, with Microsoft Azure and AWS, among others, offering it as a service used by banks like HSBC and JPMorgan.

Second, quantum is only about computing, with the goal of creating a quantum computer within five to ten years that can break current encryption. In fact, quantum and quantum-inspired algorithms are already being used on classical computers, and the rather basic quantum computers – think of your first iPhone – that we have today.

Additionally, there is a large product suite associated with the technology. Quantum sensors, for instance, are one of the most exciting developments in the field of quantum physics. They are a magnitude more powerful than current ones in identifying minerals underground or coin-sized holes in undersea gas pipes and are likely to be commercialised by companies like Bosch within the next two years. And there are other quantum technologies being worked on in parallel, such as a quantum internet, all of which provide venture capitalists with investment opportunities.

Quantum in the finance sector

The financial services industry is already experimenting with quantum and machine learning.

In CB Insights’ recently published list of 100 Top 100 AI Companies, only two quantum companies are mentioned: Sandbox AG and Multiverse, one an American spin-out from Google, the other a European medium-sized start-up with UK offices.

Multiverse, which I advise, has worked with the Bank of Canada on cryptocurrency scenarios; with Credit Agricole CIB on counterparty credit rating downgrades and valuations of derivatives; with Spanish bank BBVA on maximising portfolio returns for a given level of risk, and a host of others.

Marco Pistoia, the managing director of JPMorgan Chase’s Global Technology Applied Research Center, is very clear on why the banking behemoth is seriously investing in quantum: it promises dramatic speed-up and accuracy improvements in optimisation, simulation and machine learning. Finance is awash with exponential complexity, and classical computers cannot deal with big datasets, let alone with the time constraints usual in the industry.

Quantum machine learning will also be useful in predicting financial crisesHSBC, meanwhile, recently announced quantum computing projects in cybersecurity and fraud detection, and became the first bank to join BT and Toshiba’s quantum-secured metro network (QSMN) to protect against cyberthreats. The QSMN connects the Canary Wharf headquarters with the global bank’s data centre in Berkshire, and will be used to trial experiments such as secure video communication and financial transactions.

Quantum machine learning will also be useful in predicting financial crises. Financial firms and regulators have access to large amounts of data, but analysing them intelligently within a usable time frame requires more computing power and AI than is currently available.

Consultancy Boston Consulting Group estimates that at maturity (projected to be around 2035), quantum technology can create US$450bn to US$850bn in net income for end users through a combination of new revenue generation and cost savings.

William Hague recently wrote a couple of reports with Tony Blair, urging the Labour and Conservative parties to make leadership in science and innovation, and AI especially, the New National Purpose. As he points out, quantum is a keystone technology. “You don’t need to understand how quantum works to understand how quantum will revolutionise our world,” were his parting words at the event at Imperial.

The mind-boggling possibilities of AI using quantum as its underpinning technology is one of the reasons I founded The City Quantum and AI Summit at the Mansion House. The annual event, now in its third year, brings together the City and the quantum community, with three principles: free for all; no jargon, no lingo, only understandable language; gender-balanced panels.

We welcome all of the CISI community to the Mansion House on Monday 2 October in a bid to ensure the City leverages its world-leading role by adopting this world-changing technology.

Lessons for the workforce from the oldest person in the room

In a low-growth, low-productivity, low-birth rate era, with the pensions time bomb ticking away, keeping people working longer is crucial. But older workers are often overlooked for recruitment or promotion due to prejudice and ageism. Karina Robinson writes about her own experience and says that the problem risks getting worse, as more than half of today’s 5-year-olds in developed economies will live to at least 100.

One day you glance up from your iPhone and you are the oldest person in the room. Dyed hair, a deliberate exercise regime and good genes are not enough to spare you. Gravity may now be your constant companion but there is a delight to being older than the CEO, the head of sales, the head of growth and all the other titles spread like confetti. Everyone assumes a wisdom born of experience.

At a recent two-day retreat with Multiverse Computing, a company whose board I advise, colleagues in their early 30s, and even middle-aged ones, sidled up to ask for career advice or how to deal with internal political concerns. The reading glasses I now must wear may be a pain, but they are also a useful accessory to fidget with while considering the dilemmas of employees at a quantum software firm.

The liberation from ego is not fully accomplished – presumably that Buddhist goal only happens when we are dead – but what the French call ‘je m’en foutisme’, which can be loosely translated as ‘I couldn’t give a damn’, is certainly prevalent. At a London School of Economics alumni gathering, having been given the post-lunch slot for a keynote, I figured there was only one way to wake up the audience: perform a haka like the New Zealand All Blacks. All 5 feet 2 inches of me (1.6 metres) did so; only one Argentine alumnus was able to identify my wild manoeuvrings on stage; no one slept through my speech.

The absurdity of the human condition, of our petty ambitions in a vast universe, come home to roost, as mortality feels more and more like a reality, rather than a distant dream. Making a fool of yourself becomes increasingly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things – good training for a non-executive director in asking the question that no one else dares bring up, or one that may, actually, turn out to be foolish. But one stupid question does not negate a long career.

Women over 50 are the fastest growing segment of the UK workforce, while globally in 2021 this group equalled 26% of all women, up from 22% a decade earlier, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). They are often overlooked for recruitment or promotion due to prejudice and ageism. Yet the problem also extends to ageing men, and it will only become worse. In the wealthiest nations, experts predict that more than half of today’s 5-year-olds will live to at least 100.

In a low growth, low productivity, low birth rate era, with the pensions time bomb ticking away, keeping people working longer is crucial. Britt Harris, CEO of the US’s largest endowment fund, recently told the FT that ageing executives should ‘move out of the way’ for younger generations. But the leader of the University of Texas and Texas A&M endowment system is missing a trick.

What we need is more people over 60 staying in work, not least because age diversity directly benefits performance via enriched knowledge, skills and social networks. At the LSE’s The Inclusion Initiative (TII), we’ve been considering how the workplace needs to change to attract and accommodate the older worker.

Rather than thinking only about “age-specific steps”, employers need to focus on benefits that accrue to all, but may be especially relevant to older workers, such as more flexibility and more training at work. The policies aimed at those with disabilities, like wellness programmes and meeting protocols (for example, making slides available before meetings) have benefited all employees, notes TII Researcher Daniel Jolles. Age-inclusive HR policies create more inclusive policies for all workers.

The ‘Great Retirement’ of 50+-year-olds saw the UK and other developed countries lose their older workforce post pandemic. In the UK, this movement has not been reversed and is a key factor in the worker shortage holding back the economy. According to think tank Phoenix Insights, 16 per cent of 50 to 64-year-olds that have left work since 2019 blame long-term sickness or disability for being economically inactive. Here, better provision of health support for long-term conditions is crucial, albeit unrealistic given the state of the NHS in the UK and of the straining health systems of other countries.

Meanwhile, 57 per cent of those in their late 50s say they are not looking for work because they are retired or looking after family. This rises to 68 per cent among those in their early 60s. My generation is burdened with taking care of ageing parents in their 80s and 90s, as older life is extended but with its consequent mental and physical vulnerabilities, while also increasingly taking care of grandchildren due to the astronomical cost of childcare and the two-working-parent family. “Employers urgently need to get serious about offering flexible working that fits alongside other pressures and priorities in people’s lives,” notes Catherine Foot, Director of Phoenix Insights.

One way for employers to tempt older workers back is through signing up to the Centre for Ageing Better’s Age-Friendly Employer Pledge. Signing the Age Pledge signals that the unique needs of an older workforce will be catered to – even if some of them are not dissimilar to those of other groups. When a firm celebrates Pride Month in June it is sending a signal to LGBT+ employees and potential employees that their unique needs will be catered to. It is not an onerous pledge. Measures include identifying a senior sponsor for age-inclusion, ensuring age is specifically named within Equality, Diversity and Inclusion policies, encouraging career development at all ages, and hiring age-positively.

An article in the Harvard Business Review focused on how multi-generational teams “bring together people with complementary abilities, skills, information and networks.” Given that we currently have a mind-boggling five generations in the workforce, this is not without age-related misconceptions and conflict, which need to be handled. But the interaction can be a game-changer. The article gives the example of the development of the first low-cost open-source metal 3D printer by the Open Sustainability Technology Lab at Michigan Technological University. Former director Joshua Pearce credits the team’s success to members’ willingness to learn from those of other generations, including “the technical skills of Gen X faculty, the software wizardry of Millennial graduate students, and the experienced resourcefulness of Boomer researchers.”

Seventy-six-year-old Elton John hobbled onto the stage at the Glastonbury music festival in June. As the aerial cameras panned over the crowd – so large it caused a Twitter storm – every young person, as well as the middle aged, sang along to 1970 hits like ‘Candle in the Wind.’ Most appropriate though, was ‘I’m still standing’, which he played from a sitting position.

Quantum Matters: NATO’S Quantum Leap: Designing A Quantum Strategy

The day Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine the infamous 2019 words of President Macron – NATO is ‘brain dead’ – were crushed under its tracks. President Putin failed to conquer Ukraine. He succeeded in reinvigorating NATO, both geopolitically and technologically.

Evidence of the latter was clear over a couple of brainstorming days to define NATO’s Quantum Strategy. Your columnist joined entrepreneurs, academics, military suppliers and NATO personnel at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen and at NATO headquarters in Brussels to give their input to the strategy document, due to be published this autumn.  

The Alliance is thriving on the strong justification of its defensive purpose, with Finland a new member, Sweden in the waiting room, and even historically neutral Ireland reconsidering its stance on not joining NATO in a consultative forum this month. 

What Mark Leonard, Director of think tank ECFR calls ‘The Age of Unpeace’ – of submarine incursions to map infrastructure, cyberattacks on national health services that cannot be traced to a state actor, political destabilisation through social media – is a persistent reminder of the threats.  

As a result, NATO has accelerated its move into what it calls Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT), with strategies on everything from AI to Space and Quantum. It aims to leverage its convening power to foster innovation and ensure the West and its allies like Australia and Japan retain a technological lead, a strategy called Foster and Protect.  

At the April 2022 Foreign Ministers’ meeting, it approved a charter for the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) with its initial test centre and accelerator sites. Additionally, 22 member states agreed to participate in the €1bn NATO Innovation Fund, the first multi-sovereign venture capital fund, which is set to make its initial investments at the end of 2023.  

The US Department of Defense is currently seeking permission from Congress to join it. Its quasi-threatening wording reveals how strategically significant the DOD sees this area: “Allowing the US Department of Defense to participate in the NATO DIANA initiative would support implementation of some important elements of the NATO agenda. Absent new statutory authority enacted as a result of this critical legislative proposal, the United States will not be able to participate in DIANA or other vital, successor, jointly-funded NATO R&D programs.” 

An added sense of urgency comes from the recent take off in generative AI, set to transform the world, amid warnings about its capacity for harm to the point of human extinction.

There is a similar narrative to quantum technologies. They are currently only making a difference at the margin in, for instance, optimising supply chains or the preventive maintenance of machines. However, as the science advances, and an estimated $36bn in investments from governments, plus the private sector piles in, the probability of radical breakthroughs rises. 

These range from quantum computers that could break encryption – the issue that gathers the most column inches – to quantum sensors that might detect, say, the UK’s Trident Submarine armed with its nuclear weapons.

One of the most interesting aspects of quantum is the cross over between military and civilian uses – quantum sensors for situational awareness use the same technology as those used for medical diagnosis, for instance making them profitable on various fronts. Four industries (automotive, chemicals, financial services and life sciences) are likely to see the earliest impact from quantum computing with gains of up to $1.3 trillion in value by 2035,when the industry is expected to reach maturity, according to McKinsey. 

This harks back to the civilian benefits accruing from DARPA, the US defence think tank which originally invented the internet mainly so that satellites could communicate. We are only at the starting line in understanding how quantum technologies will be used to change the world. 

What is clear is that NATO and its partners need to focus on four areas in their bid to maintain advantage. 

Firstly, support the commercial ventures which are driving development. In the US, around $4bn of public money (excluding classified military investments) is going into quantum, and a close equivalent of $3.7bn in private funding, while there are over 310 startups, as well as blue chip behemoths like Google and IBM involved.

Focus on near-wins to help propagate quantum literacy, as well as encourage funding of the industry. Quantum sensing is among the most promising technologies, with companies from Bosch to Multiverse Computing working on the hardware and software, respectively. The September 22 bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipelines is a clear user case: our current sensors do not have the capacity to detect a coin-sized hole through which gas escapes from 5km away. Quantum sensors are likely to be able to once further developed, while also being an independent back up for GPS. Our infrastructure, including smart phones, is dependent on the global navigation satellite systems and therefore rendered vulnerable.  

Keep clarity on regulation. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the US is developing a framework for quantum cybersecurity standards, due out in 2024. Regulation from bodies like this one, or the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA), are the only way to force firms to invest in quantum risk reduction because many currently baulk at spending funds and management time when they lack a sense of urgency.  

Lastly, use NATO’s soft power to bolster cooperation among friendly nations, be it through helping finance international consortiums in quantum or simply using its convening powers to bring together participants. The Alliance has a crucial, unifying role to play in an era of national industrial competition, with export controls harming allied members as well as enemy countries.  

You can’t plan an epiphany, but that is exactly what we have had in AI. We must be better prepared for a quantum leap, and NATO has a key role to play.

——-
Karina Robinson is CEO of Redcliffe Advisory, Founder of The City Quantum and AI Summit and Senior Adviser to Multiverse Computing. This Comment does not represent NATO policy. 

Quantum Matters: Dystopia or utopia? Action needed on D&I in quantum

Diversity and Inclusion in the quantum ecosphere is abysmal.

The numbers speak for themselves. In the private sector, only 1 in 54 of all applicants for female roles are female, while almost 80% of quantum companies do not have a senior female figure. There is no data on sexual orientation or ethnicity.

In an industry that is forecast to be worth $8.6bn in 2027, we cannot afford to miss out on talent. Especially when that industry is going to help solve some of the world’s most intractable environmental and medical problems. D&I is key to accelerating innovation and creativity, and avoiding group think, as evidenced in a report from The Inclusion Initiative at the London School of Economics.

Is there cause for hope? Definitely. Firstly, 62% of current employees in quantum want their employers to do more to increase diversity, according to recruitment firm Quantum Futures.

Secondly, two new organisations are focused on change. DiviQ was formed a few months ago, with industry luminaries like whurley and Denise Ruffner on board. Its mission is to foster a diverse quantum workforce through supporting those from underrepresented backgrounds with education, networking opportunities and mentorship. In an earlier incarnation, it paired over 400 quantum students, graduates and young professionals with mentors in the quantum space.

Meanwhile, The Inclusion Initiative at the London School of Economics, an institute that specialises in creating inclusive workplaces in financial and professional services through behavioural science and data, now has a new Deep Tech hub with a focus on quantum.

Thirdly, the quantum industry can learn from the finance industry, which is far from perfection, but has taken great strides in recruiting, retaining and promoting diverse staff, and changing the composition of its Boards.

In The City Quantum Summit Briefing on D&I, published earlier this month by The Inclusion Initiative (TII), participants in a brainstorming lunch at the Summit shared their advice from a lifetime of seeking to change their respective industries.

“Collecting data on diversity, benchmarking and fair hiring processes is crucial to ensure equal representation early in the hiring pipeline,” said Connor Teague, Founder of Quantum Futures. “Companies need to focus on unbiased job descriptions and interview processes.”

Cecily Josten, the researcher from TII who authored the report, noted that relying less on an applicant’s background and more on task-based assessments would aid recruiters in promoting a more diverse talent pool.

Bringing in leaders from other industries is helpful, pointed out Teague. “Hiring non-traditional quantum leaders to the business – when the co-founders step to the side and bring in a leader from a different industry – the business tends to stop hiring versions of themselves! I’ve seen great success with quantum businesses that have done this.”

Denise Wilson OBE, a leader who has transformed the composition of FTSE-350 Boards – 40% are women, compared to only a decade ago when 152 of the companies had no women on boards at all – was clear that “the power of publication should not be underestimated, and transparency drives change.”

Armed only with a target to increase the number of women on Boards, as CEO of the FTSE Women Leaders Review Wilson used embarrassment and peer pressure as a tool, publishing a list of Boards that were falling behind the new norm – as well as a barrage of social media highlighting the best and the worst performers, and supportive government guidance.

“Improving diversity means a multi-year, multi-layered approach, it requires systemic change and taking on a system that has worked very well for some but excludes others. D&I must be owned and held accountable at the Board level and talked about like any other business-critical issue,” she said.

Wilson noted the need to “lift the lid on every people process, pay, bonus allocations, retention, performance evaluations and the like.” A recent study of Gen Z by consultancy Oliver Wyman found that 30% of women looking to switch jobs cited better advancement and growth opportunities as a reason to leave a job, and wanted greater clarity about internal promotions, suggesting they see the current processes as unfair.

For Denise Ruffner, the President of Women in Quantum, a Founder at DiviQ, and a long-standing campaigner for a more diverse Deep Tech sector, culture is key. “Organisations need to pay attention to their culture and cultivate an environment where different voices and viewpoints are not only heard but encouraged and considered,” she said, pointing out that retention of highly skilled employees is a big issue in the industry.

The Oliver Wyman study noted that Gen Z (of all genders) expect fair pay, inclusive policies and transparency, or they quit. More than 60% of the 10,000 respondents in the US and the UK are looking to job hop despite an uncertain economy – they view work as transactional and “want to control their career paths, pushing hard or slowing down as needed to accommodate family, reduce stress, or pursue outside interests.”

Incorporating a degree of flexibility at work is another factor useful to encourage D&I. The average number of days worked from home or remotely is currently stabilising at around 25% of total working days. Flexible work policies can reduce quitting rates by 35%, according to recent work by Professor Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University.

LSE Professor Grace Lordan, Founder of TII, called for fair opportunities, visibility and voice, which depends on inclusive leaders who do not hire based on their own affinity, but hire for diversity and for perspectives that they do not yet have. “That really requires a change in ego in our leaders and a change of perspective towards a diversity mindset.”

Industry legend whurley was adamant that commitment and culture are crucial: “Commitment because hiring for DEI isn’t without its challenges and you can’t give up if you face a few along the way. Culture because that’s the #1 key to DEI in a company. Without a culture that embraces and celebrates differences you simply won’t succeed. DEI has to be built into your company’s DNA.”

Ultimately, D&I is much more than just a ‘nice to have’ in a transformational industry like quantum technology. A warning lies in what is currently happening with AI, and what happened with social media.

Whurley put it very clearly. “Quantum will change computing more in the next ten years than it has changed in the last century. Providing equal access and equal opportunities will make the difference between humanity’s future being diverse or dystopian.”

Karina Robinson is Senior Adviser to Multiverse Computing, Co-Founder of The Inclusion Initiative, and Founder of The City Quantum and AI Summit

Quantum Matters: Chinese Dragon or Chipped China?

2022 was the year the idol proved to have feet of clay. China, the fast-growing, authoritarian regime deepening its imperial embrace across the world, imposed a harsh lockdown due to the ineffectiveness of its home-grown. Covid vaccines and saw its growth plummet, even as the West lifted restrictions and enjoyed the fruits of pent up demand. 

An end of year abrupt policy reversal on Zero Covid, apparently on the back of demonstrations, shocked the world. China’s state-of-the-art digital social controls proved ineffective, even if only for a few weeks; its much-vaunted industrial spying machine was unable to replicate the West’s MNRA vaccine; and it is now in the midst of a deadly experiment, the world’s biggest annual migration with more than two billion passenger trips over the 40-day Lunar New Year holiday, older people being exposed to infected relatives and friends, basic medicine shortages and overwhelmed hospitals. The death toll will never be known. 

Amid all this, on January 4th Chinese researchers published a paper with the snappy title of Factoring integers with sublinear resources on a superconducting quantum processor, or as the Financial Times’s headline put it: Chinese researchers claim to find way to break encryption using quantum computers. 

The scientists identified how to a break a 2048-bit algorithm, which safeguards information, using a 372-qubit quantum computer. At first sight, that looked like a serious threat. After all, IBM’s Osprey already has 433 qubits.   

However, a flurry of critical articles from experts followed, pointing out that the paper wasn’t peer reviewed and that it was a small scale demonstration which wasn’t obviously scalable. Paolo Cuomo, Founding Partner of Quantum London, wrote: “It’s important to note that this is still theory as their work was on a 10 qubit device and they have ‘extrapolated’ results, and one thing we know about the quantum domain (thank you Marvel Cinematic Universe and Ant Man!) is that it is far from linear in its behaviour.”

For the quantum industry, the article was helpful in highlighting what a US National Security  Memorandum published last May identifies as the key risk:  “Most notably, a quantum computer of sufficient size and sophistication — also known as a cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer(CRQC) — will be capable of breaking much of the public-key cryptography used on digital systems across the United States and around the world.

Reminding governments and companies alike of their vulnerability (not least to the Chinese, not least to the harvest-now-decrypt-later enemy agents) is useful in nudging the migration to post-quantum cryptography. Admittedly, until the US’s world-leading National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) publishes final results for quantum-safe cryptography standards for cybersecurity – in July 2022 it published initial ones – private sector firms will not undertake expensive, complex overhauls of their cybersecurity systems. New standards are not expected until 2024. 

The question of why the paper was published at this time has flummoxed geopolitical analysts. But perhaps the assumption that every step taken by China has a deeper strategic significance needs to be re-evaluated. 

It is true that it is a rising power and the US a declining power. That its Belt & Road Initiative  has been effective, from Antigua to Ethiopia and even Italy. That it is forecast to be the world’s biggest economy by 2028.

But as Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister and Mandarin speaker, writes in his masterful analysis of China, The Avoidable War, President Xi ‘’no longer cares if his policies are not…the most efficient way to grow China’s national GDP. “ His crackdown on private sector behemoths like Jack Ma’s Alibaba or Tencent is “immensely popular with the Chinese middle class.”

However, without growing at the pre-Covid 6-7% annual clip, and instead at the more likely 4%, China won’t bring as many people out of poverty as it did under pre-Xi regimes. The political repercussions of abandoning the decades-old bargain – ‘we as a government will ensure your children live better than you do and you will not question the Party’s supremacy’  – may be severe.

Meanwhile, China’s population has peaked, a decade earlier than anticipated, and is ageing. Xi’s crackdown on the private sector, which provides for 90% of new employment growth, dims the job prospects for the country’s youth, notes Rudd, while its economy is only 30% as productive as the US or Germany due to the continued influence and unproductive investment of the state. 

If the Chinese President’s emphasis on Party control slows down the economy and a political backlash becomes apparent, he can play the nationalist card. Whether that involves a blockade of Taiwan, a cybersecurity attack to take down all its infrastructure, or an outright invasion, is not clear. But it is a major fear for policy makers in countries opposed to China, especially given their continued dependence on its manufacturing capabilities. Over 95% of the iPhone is still produced in China, despite diversification efforts. 

For the quantum sector, one of the most important features is China’s innovation. State-led innovation through policies like ‘Made in China 2025’ has been given a boost through vast sums of money and other forms of government support. However, there will be a dampening effect from the crackdown on the private sector, on academic freedom and on professors who might have been foreign trained, and from the limits on technology transfers from the West.

In a recent academic paper, LSE researchers suggested democracy is associated with more innovation overall, given that it relies on the free and open exchange of ideas, flourishes in environments supportive of risk-taking and creativity, and takes root through an acceptance of trial and error.  

They conclude that none of these attributes come easily to autocracies, with the caveat that military innovation may differ. This explains the Chinese state’s emphasis on quantum communication and on breaking existing cryptography.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken summed up his country’s position towards China with these words: “Our relationship with China will be competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be.”

This balancing act, one the West as a whole must manage, would test even a quantum computer with a million stable qubits. 

The conformity curse delays progress on diversity and inclusion

Conformity is part of our DNA, a useful attribute to ensure the continuation of the species by minimising conflict and maximising cooperation. But it is also the main impediment to creating a more diverse, inclusive workforce, as evidenced by the glacial pace of progress on gender equality. Karina Robinson writes that there are times when we need not to conform. She says that the courage to step outside the consensus and make a stand, however lonely, is crucial.

At 7:30am on a January winter day, as I bent down to pick up my Norfolk Terrier’s poo in the park, I regretted the absence of anyone to watch the careful operation. How ludicrous to want to demonstrate that I was a responsible member of society! Yet from poos to parties, conformity to the norm is the rock upon which society is built. It is part of our DNA, a useful attribute to ensure the continuation of the human race by minimising conflict and maximising cooperation.

Conformity is also the main impediment to creating a more diverse, inclusive workforce.

Subconscious biases are part of this. Cambridge historian Mary Beard argues that our mental, cultural template for a powerful person remains resolutely male, admitting that even for a feminist professor like her, ‘the cultural stereotype is so strong that, at the level of close-your-eyes fantasies, it is still hard for me to imagine me, or someone like me, in my role.”

It is therefore not surprising that, globally, the share of female members of parliaments has risen from a minimal 15 per cent in 2006 to only 23 per cent in 2022, according to the latest World Economic Forum global gender gap report. Rarely do they get promoted. The average share of women in ministerial positions has risen from only 10 per cent to just 16 per cent. At this rate of progress, it will take 155 years to close the political gender gap.

Despite a host of initiatives, the corporate world is also moving at a glacial pace. Only one in four C-suite leaders in the US is female, notes the latest McKinsey report on Women in the Workplace. Meanwhile, the number of female CEOs in the FTSE-350 largest companies in the UK is unchanged from 2016 to 2021– only 18, notes Statista.

Apart from issues of fairness and a more diverse perspective, fishing for talent in a bigger pool is the only way to fill both the existing large number of job vacancies and future ones. International Longevity Centre research shows a potential shortfall of 2.6m workers by 2030.

The ease of conformity contrasts with the hard work of creating change. Denise Wilson, CEO of the FTSE Women Leaders Review, says: “I am often asked what is the silver bullet, the one thing that an organisation should do to drive progress. Regrettably, there is no such magic. Improving diversity means a multi-year, multi- layered approach. It requires systematic change and taking on a system that has worked very well for some but excludes others.”

There are times when the courage to step outside the consensus and make a stand, however lonely, is crucial.

January 2022 was the 80th anniversary of the Wannsee Conference, where 15 members of the Nazi high command and the SS agreed the ‘Final Solution’ for the Jews. The film Conspiracy depicts the meeting, which over a few hours of bureaucratic wrangling – what philosopher Hannah Arendt calls the ‘banality of evil’ – made concentration camps like Auschwitz part of the official German state apparatus. The Kenneth Branaugh film depicts two officials who attempted to halt, or at least slow, the process. They were, ultimately, intimidated into laying misgivings to rest.

Also in January 2022, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was under fire for a series of parties held at 10 Downing Street at a time when the country was in lockdown, when many families were torn apart from their loved ones, especially elderly ones. Before the scandal broke out, the belief that ‘we are all in this together’ had been a comfort. Conforming to self-sacrificing rules for the health of society took its toll on the physical and mental health of the nation.

Being told what to do by rule-makers who turned out to be rule-breakers undermined the basis of our social contract. That is why the Downing Street parties were the beginning of the end for the prime minister, while other misdemeanours have been feather-like in their effect on the government’s standing, such as the awarding of COVID-related contracts to unqualified recipients, or the Dominic Cummings’s imbroglios.

It may seem a far stretch to tumble together dog poo, diversity and inclusion, the Holocaust, and a government under fire – in fact, downright disrespectful. In no way is this meant to offend. But as we head into a year that is likely to be one of great upheaval (given the war in Ukraine, rising rates, and China’s reopening), let us reflect on how to reconcile the need for acceptance and the need to stand apart from the norm in our search for a more diverse and inclusive society.

A Saudi revolution in convoluted times

Collaboration and Communication

“It’s a good time to be a woman in Saudi Arabia,” said the CEO of a bank over dinner at Riyadh’s fashionable Cipriani restaurant. She – for it was a she – is not alone in thinking that. In fact, the most senior role in the Saudi diplomatic service, Ambassador to Washington, is held by Princess Reema Al Saud, another foreign educated female in her 40s.

A policy including transport subsidies, childcare support and employer incentives for hiring women has resulted in the proportion of Saudi women in work doubling in only four years to 33 percent, exceeding the 27 percent average for the Middle East and North Africa, notes the IMF.

The role of women is not the only change in a country undergoing a seismic shift into a technologically-driven, innovative land. Demography, purpose and funds are the three foundations upon which Mohammed Bin Salman’s Vision 2030 is being built.

Demographic Dividend

Two thirds of Saudi Arabia’s 36m population is under 35 years old. With a fertility rate of 2.3 per woman, the young will continue dominating, although the birth rate has fallen substantially over the last years and that fall will likely accelerate as women take up more working roles. This is one reason for the Crown Prince, known as MBS, to pursue his framework for development at a brisk pace – one look at archenemy Iran provides another.

Iran’s population numbers a heftier 86m, but it has a similar age profile: 60% of its people are under 30. However, without a modernising agenda chock-a-block with opportunities for the young, and with no steady sources of income due to sanctions, its rulers, if they survive, will continue facing riots and revolts – like that sparked in September by the death of a young woman, probably due to religious police brutality.

Purposeful Activity

The second leg of the Saudi development stool is purpose. Vision 2030 envisages the country weaning itself off its dependence on oil revenues and diversifying its economy into sectors including science and technology.

The aims for the tourism sector are among the most ambitious – doubling the number of UNESCO world heritage sites, establishing the largest Islamic museum in the world, and promoting cultural and entertainment activities. This has a couple of advantages. Tourism employs large numbers of people, most likely the young, from both skilled and unskilled backgrounds, while also encouraging an openness to the world that will be hard to row back on.

One of the chosen areas for tourist development is in the northwest, around the town and oasis of AlUla, a stop-off on the historical Incense Road. Old shops are being restored, and local women in full hijab and increasingly more liberal outfits are given the task of running them with the rent and stock subsidised by the state. Cool cafés and restaurants abound, staffed by a mix of foreigners and Saudis, many of the latter on a steep learning curve.

On our recent visit, the tour guide showing us the nearby Nabatean tombs at Hegra – like Petra in Jordan but without the crowds – was a historian whose mother was a Bedouin and father a local. The Royal Commission AlUla (RCA) sends 500 students abroad annually for degrees, mainly to the US, a practice that the central government had been applying for years, resulting in a skilled, English-speaking youth. One of our Uber drivers in Riyadh, between jobs as a town planner, had studied at university in Texas on a full scholarship.

The cleverness of Vision 2030 for youth is that it not only hands them a purpose – pride in their country’s history and beauty, and it in its rapid modernisation – but it also provides entertainment. An example is Boulevard Riyadh City, a 900,000 square metre outdoor area of shops, laser shows, and concerts, built only three years ago and constantly increasing in size and offerings. A couple of weeks ago a female DJ in black leggings and a long-sleeved T-shirt was busy spinning and boogieing to what sounded to our untrained ears like Saudi house music.

The biggest boost to tourism will come from the lifting of the ban on alcohol, rumoured to be happening within the next two years. This will probably apply to tourist areas only, rather like Dubai and Qatar.

Expats make up around 38% of the population, ranging from the most menial jobs to the highly paid consultants from firms like McKinsey and Bain, who are making eye-watering amounts from their work.

Oil Funds

And Saudi Arabia has the money to pay them. The third leg of its development stool are the vast amounts flowing into its coffers due to the energy crisis. Saudi Arabia is making about $1 billion a day from oil exports, according to Bloomberg, marking a 123% increase year on year. The IMF estimates the country will be one of the world’s fastest growing economies this year, with GDP growing at 7.6%.

This is evident everywhere you look, whether in Riyadh or Jeddah, the second largest city on the coast, or AlUla. A plethora of architecturally stunning new buildings spring up continually and the air of excitement is palpable. This year’s annual FII conference, nicknamed Davos in the Desert, was the largest ever, with over 7,000 delegates from all over the world.

What could go wrong?

In a world awash in recession and inflation, Saudi Arabia stands out as the promised land, where vast funds are being applied to create a “vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation.” What could be more symbolic than its football team beating World Cup favourites Argentina only a few days ago?

There is, however, one caveat to the fairy tale. “It all depends on one man,” noted a Saudi top executive.

Vision 2030, launched in 2016, was developed with the input of the Council of Economic & Development Affairs, and constant feedback from business, but MBS is key to its implementation. He took power away from the Council of Senior Scholars, the supreme religious body; from the Mutawa, the religious police; from the Saudi financial and political elite, many of whom are part of the royal family, with a well-publicised kidnap of around 500 of the country’s elite, held hostage in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel. Those actions should ensure that the 37-year old Crown Prince will be appointed King by the Royal Court when his father dies.

That ruthlessness was also apparent in the 2018 murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, with the CIA ascribing blame to the Saudi ruler. Public opprobrium followed, but was short-lived – most evidently when this summer, vociferous critic Joe Biden travelled to Saudi Arabia to fist-pump with MBS and plead for higher oil production; most recently with rival Turkey gratefully accepting a purported $5bn transfer to its central bank reserves.

Saudi coffee, delicious as it is, is unrecognisable as coffee to Western palates. Saffron, cardamom, ginger, and other spices, add an entirely different dimension. So it is proving with Saudi Arabia’s revolution. An awe-inspiring local creation, but one that won’t suit all palates.

Quantum Matters

This is an abbreviated version of my opening remarks to The City Quantum and AI Summit, which took place at the Mansion House on October 11. A recording of the event is available here. 

Thank you to all who have come in person – and virtually, from India to Bulgaria to Nigeria – for joining The City Quantum and AI Summit. And thank you above all to our sponsors, who allow this Summit to be free, so all students can join, and Diversity & Inclusion can be central to it.

We are celebrating the summit in the Mansion House, the palatial home of the Lord Mayor of the City of London, to bring together the financial and quantum sectors and thus leverage the heady advances we have seen in quantum over the last year.

However, quantum has limits. As you will all be aware, we in the UK have had a few issues with recent government announcements and policy, a plummeting pound, mortgage withdrawals, borrowing cost rises. In fact, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng rang me this morning. Karina, he said. Can a quantum computer solve these issues?

Sadly, not yet. But what can quantum do? It can help deal with a world of increasing complexity, geopolitical divisions, and environmental harm.  

We don’t have a state of the art quantum computer today. But what we do have is different versions of a basic quantum computer – with a raft of improvements being announced every day – and advances in quantum software. That software can often be used on classical computers. Not just quantum ones. And participants should not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. 

I won’t anticipate the panel discussions, but we are seeing developments in at least three areas of interest.

+the formation of new medicines, where you can create a ‘digital twin’ of a human body to conduct virtual drug trials.

+supply chain issues. A boring topic, till the pandemic and Ukraine brought it all home. For instance, optimising a supply chain, so that cargo ships are fully filled with the right containers and don’t sit around the Port of LA for weeks on end. Not sexy, but with an incredible effect on the bottom line of the companies involved, and on the carbon footprint of humankind. 

+Finance. Given the roller coaster of all markets, who wouldn’t want to de-risk portfolios, price options infinitely better, hedge forex risk properly…

Why are we here? The City, and the quantum sector together, can create the economic growth that governments in the UK, the US, and Europe, and other countries, are looking for. How?

Communication, collaboration, immigration.

Communication.

The quantum sector needs to communicate better with the financial sector, and the wider world. The City Quantum and AI Summit is one of the foundations of that. 

Collaboration.

The more we do together, the better for quantum, the better for the financial and professional services industry. And the more transnational that is, the better. I note the UK and the US Technology Partnership, announced last year, and which will hopefully include other countries, was just updated last week. In the words of Jay Lowell of Boeing: “The economy of ideas does not follow geopolitical borders.”

Immigration.

We need to get real on this. We – and I mean ALL the industries represented here, don’t just need quantum PhDs, we need marketing people, we need HR, we need PR. In the FT yesterday, President Obama’s Chair of the US Council of Economic Advisers, Jason Furman, noted that immigration is so much more important than any other measure to increase productivity. 

Communication, Collaboration, Immigration. 

In the last three weeks, we’ve seen the Nobel Prize for Physics given to three pioneers of the quantum industry.

We’ve seen the European Commission announce six sites where quantum computers will be located in the EU.

We’ve seen the creation of UKQuantum, a consortium to accelerate UK innovation. 

That is just three announcements in the sector. Even more important is the increase in defence budgets on the back of our uncertain world. Money matters. As we saw from the Apollo Space Mission, defence spending can be a propulsor of amazing innovation for civilian use. In fact, space missions brought us CAT scans, water purification systems, and even Baby Formula! 

There is, as The Quantum Insider puts it, a fundamental discrepancy between the rapid advances in quantum technology and the adoption by commercial customers. But today, you are going to here from those who are adopting it. Those like Bosch, Standard Chartered, and Boeing, who are going to have a quantum advantage in competing in our disrupted world.  

US General Eric Shinseki had a great phrase: “If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.”

Let’s get on with being relevant. Thank you.

Karina Robinson is the Founder of The City Quantum and AI Summit and a Senior Advisor to Multiverse Computing

Neutrality is not an option

How quantum benefits from geopolitical fissures

“Neutrality is not an option,” said the top NATO executive. Speaking at a private dinner a week ago, his words applied to the business world, not just to nation states.

The question is, how aware are Boards of the binary choices they are facing, and what does this mean for the quantum sector?

Geopolitical risk galloped back onto Board agendas over the last few years with Brexit, the economic consequences of former President Trump’s economic nationalism, and President Xi’s ‘fortress China’ policy. Events this year only added to its importance: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which today morphed into a possible war on the West, China’s stepped-up aggression towards Taiwan, and the volte-face of neutral Sweden joining NATO.

Western tech companies that fundraising are turning away approaches from Tencent and Alibaba, the Chinese technology behemoths, who they would have welcomed with open arms only a few years ago. The US and Europe, among others, are encouraging ‘onshoring’ or ‘friendly shoring’, the return of manufacturing to the domestic market, or at least to countries that are seen as friendly. Supply chain resilience is now a central issue for business and governments – note the billion-dollar subsidies for domestic semiconductor manufacturing in President Biden’s CHIPS and Science Act 2022.

But the full implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China/US tensions over Taiwan have yet to be digested by business leaders attached to globalisation and, above all, attached to the profit-making possibilities of a vast Chinese middle class – 400m people, larger than the US population. In his recently published diaries, Lord Patten, the last Governor of Hong Kong before its return to China, wrote that Canadian governments from 1995 onwards had a “crush” on the country. “They see – here we go again – treasures beyond human craving just over the horizon.” His words are widely applicable today not just to nations, but companies as well’.

A few months ago, the CEO of a FTSE-100 asset management firm agreed at a private lunch that the geopolitical divide between the West and China had widened markedly. But the firm, he said, was not dialling down its exposure to the country. Its operations there were both profitable and a great source of data, he added.

Within the next seven years an invasion of Taiwan, or at the very least a blockade, is looking more likely, say experts. There are parallels between President Xi and President Putin. In the words of former head of MI6 Sir Alex Younger, referring to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ageing Russian leader had gone into “legacy mode, almost messianic in his determination to be the president that restored Russia to greatness.”* The same could well apply to Xi.

Putin’s invasion led to a set of unparalleled sanctions which hurt Western and other allied companies doing business in Russia as they struggled to depart the country, selling their assets at knock-down prices, while it also had a deleterious effect on many economies through higher energy and food prices.

However, the escalation of Taiwan tensions into something resembling a war will make this year’s issues seem paltry by comparison, given China’s integration into the world economy.

Yet for the world of quantum, a world of opportunity beckons – albeit not in China. At a time where private sector funding for Deep Tech is looking sparse, newly-emboldened governments and security alliances are stepping in.

Not only is there the CHIPS and Science Act 2022 in the US, but only a few months ago NATO launched a €1 billion Innovation Fund for early-stage start-ups and venture capital funds developing dual-use emerging technologies in areas including quantum-enabled technologies, novel materials, energy and AI. Germany stated last week that it would become Europe’s leading military power with, according to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, “the best-equipped force in Europe.”

In parallel with the development of quantum technologies in areas like energy and novel materials, the largest opportunity exists in cybersecurity. This encompasses protection against a functional quantum computer that can break current classical encryption – expected within the next 5-7 years – and better protection against current break-ins, which include the ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ strategy.

As China evolves into a declared enemy, its efficient cyberespionage programme is becoming ever more newsworthy. The FBI opens a new investigation into Chinese espionage every 12 hours, it has stated, while MI5’s caseload has risen sevenfold since 2018, according to the British spy agency.

One US estimate suggested that Chinese commercial espionage stole as much as $600bn of US intellectual property every year. The EU has estimated that total IP theft costs it €50bn in sales every year, with the loss of 671,000 jobs.

From Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) to Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), firms in the quantum space are developing a mix of technologies to combat this by securing communications and keeping data safe.

The National Security Agency (NSA) put a shot across the bows of systemically important companies earlier in September when it released future quantum resistant algorithm requirements for national security systems. In fact, actual post-quantum software defences are still being elaborated, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has not yet published the final list of those it considers viable – we are only at the short list stage. But the NSA was intent on warning corporates that major investment in new cyber security systems are on the horizon.

To be sure, funding for quantum start-ups has not totally dried up. $2.2 billion went into the sector over the last 12 months, up 15.0% on the previous year, according to quantum market data from The Quantum Insider. However, much larger amounts are likely to be coming from governments and corporates as they adjust to deepened fissures in the geopolitical strata.

*Quote from Michael Smith’s fascinating book The Real Special Relationship – The True Story of how the British and UK Secret Services work together

Why the Benefits of Age Diversity Need to be Shouted from the Rooftops

Speech delivered on Champion Age Diversity Day

Age has been in the news.

In the UK, we just celebrated the Platinum Jubilee of our queen, now 96-years old, and still delivering value in the workplace. In her case, that happens to be the balcony on Buckingham Palace.

In the US we have the oldest man to be sworn in as President at age 78. At age 29, Joe Biden was one of the youngest people ever elected to the United States Senate. He may be domestically unpopular - hugely unpopular – but I am not alone in being grateful that an experienced statesman is in charge during the biggest crisis to face the West since the Cold War.

And on a June weekend, we saw a critically injured 36-year-old beat a 23-year-old at Roland Garros to walk away with his 14th French Open win, and thus be called the GREATEST OF ALL TIME, the best tennis player of his generation: Rafael Nadal, with two grand slams more than his closest opponents.

Yet we live in a world that worships youth. That dismisses the middle aged and the old. A world where if you are over 50, its going to be a nightmare trying to find a new job. And chances are, if you are employed, with stagflation, recession, whatever is coming, your employer is more likely to dismiss you if you are over 50, than if you are younger.

AGE DISCRIMINATION EXISTS AND ITS THRIVING

If I say to you, youth and innovation, youth and entrepreneurship, you won’t bat an eyelid.

If I say to you, an older worker and innovation, older worker and entrepreneurship…well, it doesn’t exactly slip off the tongue, does it?

In fact, I have my own story of age discrimination. In a bid to cut back on the household bills, I thought I would go grey, give up those boring visits to the hairdresser – boring and expensive – every six weeks. I bought a grey wig, to see what I would look like. Let me show you, as I showed my family.

(At this point in the speech, Karina put on a grey wig)

I admit it is a cheap, nasty wig. But what was even more horrific was my 21-year old son’s reaction: “Mama, you are supposed to be at the forefront of social change in the City, of Diversity and Inclusion. If you let yourself go grey, you won’t have any credibility.”

Let me repeat that:’ you won’t have any credibility. ‘

The conclusion is that if you are older, you don’t look like an agent of change, you don’t look like an entrepreneur, you don’t look like an innovator.

WHAT IS THE REALITY?

Let me give you 3 doses of reality.

First. The average age of a successful start-up founder is 45, according to a 2020 research study by Economica. Note the word ‘successful’.

Let me quote: ‘Among those who have started a firm, older entrepreneurs have a substantially higher success rate. Our evidence points to entrepreneurial performance rising sharply with age before cresting in the late fifties. If you were faced with two entrepreneurs and knew nothing about them besides their age, you would do better, on average, betting on the older one.’

Second dose of reality. The future of work. There is a lot of talk about automation taking away jobs from human beings. And about the older generation not being digital natives. We are digital immigrants. All true.

However, according to a study by The Inclusion Initiative at the London School of Economics, brains and heart win in the future of work.

Jobs that require abstract thinking, people engagement and soft skills are less likely to be automated, according to research. The authors also find that combining ‘heart’ with ‘brains’ will future-proof your job further. ‘Heart’ relates to jobs that involve soft skills and are high people engagement.

Now – and what I am going to say ain’t no research study – if I look at my peer group, we don’t need to prove ourselves anymore. We’re comfortable with our faults, with our qualities. We’ve either made it or we haven’t. We don’t take things as personally. We enjoy laughing at our own absurdities.

In a multigenerational workspace, that lack of ego, that lack of the need for struggle, can be very helpful.

Third dose of reality.

We have a vast, skills shortage in the Western world. Labour markets are in flux from the pandemic fallout and technological upheaval. Up to a billion people will need reskilling and life-long training by 2030, according to the OECD. We need more carers; we need more marketing executives; we need more quantum scientists.

And in parallel, on the plus side, we have a healthier population of people over 50, over 60, over 70, some of whom want to work longer, some of whom must, due to financial necessity, and many of whom will reinvent themselves.

As a microcosm of my third ‘dose of reality’, let me give you an example I have become very familiar with. The world of quantum computing. I won’t bore you with the details of how a finance and politics journalist has reinvented herself as a quantum guru – quantum involves geniuses with double PhDs, molecular simulation and Star Trek scenarios. Way out of my comfort zone.

In this ecosphere, the CEO of Google’s quantum spin out SandboxAQ, recently said, “The number one concern we have going forward is the skills gap. When people ask me, “what keeps me up at night?” – that’s what keeps me up at night – the lack of a talent pipeline in quantum and also lack of diversity in that pipeline.”

SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY

What’s Jack Hidary’s solution? Work with universities to increase the pipeline. But also work with what he calls the “existing adult working population”. While at Google, they trained numerous staff in various quantum and other advanced math courses; they trained customers; they upskilled engineers and scientists that were already- ALREADY – in the workforce.

THAT’s the biggest opportunity. THAT’s the key to the skills shortage. Upskill, training, reinvention in any shape.

In Top Gun Maverick, the much-publicised blockbuster, ageing star Tom Cruise is dismissed by a younger protagonist with the words, “The future is coming, and you’re not in it”. Who can doubt that he, at 58 years old, saves the day?!

Not only are we, the older generation, the future. WE are the key. WE are the opportunity. WE are the solution.

This is the keynote speech delivered by Karina Robinson, Co-Director of The Inclusion Initiative, on Champion Age Diversity Day, as part of a panel on Valuing Age Diversity in the Workplace.

It was sponsored by The Age Diversity Forum and Hansuke Consultants.

Companies cannot afford to be left behind in the quantum revolution

Refugees can be a welcome boost for companies seeking talent

Is Poland next?

A deformed perception of reality

President Putin’s troops are making slow progress in Ukraine but the lack of speed in no way detracts from what military minds see as a foregone conclusion: the physical destruction of a European nation.

In 2017, with a headline-dominating North Korea looking like the biggest threat to global stability, Ben Hodges, then Commanding General of US troops in Europe, told Karina’s Column: “Of course Russia, and its behaviour over the last three years [with invasions of Crimea and Ukraine] is the only nation that really possesses the ability, the capability, to destroy a European country or the United States with their nuclear weapons.”

“So in terms of an existential threat, that’s Russia,” he said, quickly adding a reassuring sentence: “Now it’s not likely, but that’s a part of it.”

Ukrainian bravery cannot stop, only delay, a war criminal with a superior arsenal and armed forces. Negotiations, unless Putin has changed his form, are but a cover for regrouping and keeping his opponents off balance.

We can only speculate at what the ultimate aim of the former KGB spy might be, but a devastated nation, living in fear of the Russian bear next door, is likely to be a satisfactory outcome. There is no need for an occupation, which would drain funds from state coffers. NATO becomes a de jure impossibility for Ukraine – as opposed to a de facto one, which had long been the case. The EU will not, and cannot take on, a country reduced to rubble with a desperate need for a Marshall Plan equivalent.

One of the outcomes of the war is that Russia, despite acquiring pariah status, has slotted back into the top echelon of nations. No more is China the only story.

As the West desperately tries to understand Putin’s motivations and where these will lead, one man who dealt with him as first a President and supporter, to then discover an implacable enemy, says the leaders in the West have never understood and will never understand that Putin has the “mentality of an exponent of organised crime,” Mafia boss rather than statesman.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former owner of petrol company Yukos, worked in parallel with the Russian President until his forays into political opposition landed him in jail for a decade.

In a recent interview with Italian newspaper Corriere, the London-based exile dismissed Putin apologists’ theory that his fear of Ukraine joining NATO led to the invasion.

“He hates NATO but does not fear it. Rather, he is now taken with a messianic mission. He is possessed, and you can see that in his having placed a [17.5m high] statue of Vladimir the Great [Prince of Novgorod, Grand Prince of Kiev, and ruler of Kievan Rus' from 980 to 1015] in front of the Kremlin.”

Khodorkovsky has no doubt the aggression against Ukraine is the fruit of a “deformed” perception of reality. After over two decades in power, the Russian President is surrounded by advisers who through fear dare not tell him the truth.

Putin has already threatened the use of nuclear weapons against the West, turned Belarus into a vassal state, and sent troops to Kazakhstan to quell anti-government unrest in January – it is unclear whether they have all returned home. The Russian Ministry of Defence says they have. At the very least, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is entirely in his debt.

The West, anxious about a Third World War, has been very clear that unless a NATO nation is attacked, they will not fight. Only two weeks ago, Russia bombed a military facility in Ukraine close enough to Poland for those on the border to see the flashes.

What would NATO do if Putin bombed some of the exported arms from NATO countries building up on the Polish side of the border? That is one of the few ways into Ukraine and into the hands of its army. Would the West prevaricate, arguing that the attack was about the weapons, not the country? That would be a mistake.

Khodorkovsky is not alone in believing that the West’s military inaction is encouraging Putin. He envisages a scenario where the Russian President will conquer Ukraine - guerrilla warfare will continue - and as the Russian economy worsens, he will launch a war against Poland, a similar distraction to the wars he launched in 2008 and 2014, but more in line with his Vladimir the Great-like ambitions.

At least one Polish mother has already contacted her London-based sister for assistance in extracting her conscription-aged son from the country as quickly as possible.

Putin’s heart-breaking and unprovoked war on Ukraine has had the welcome effect of uniting the West – Sweden is likely to announce it will join NATO by the spring. But the effects on his own country - turning Russians into pariahs, devastating the domestic economy on the back of sanctions and a brain drain, eliminating the last vestiges of a free society – sets the scene for more wars.

Meanwhile, the prognosis for the West’s economy, already suffering from inflationary forces, is dire. Wheat prices at record highs are bound to stay there. There will be no new planting in Ukraine. Oil prices are 70% higher than twelve months ago. with Western leaders like Boris Johnson going cap in hand to unseemly leaders of oil producing states to beg for increased production or deals. Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly refuses to take President Joe Biden’s calls, with the latter having been critical of MBS’s human rights record. Autocracies have been strengthened by Russia’s actions.

The erosion of social cohesion and livelihood crises were two of the top five 10-year risks in the 2022 World Economic Forum Global Risk report. The effects of the invasion can but exacerbate these. Governments will need to tread carefully, and apply support, as a toxic cost of living increase feeds into society.

What might happen if Putin does take the war into Poland? We don’t know. But we do know what a previous invasion of Poland I 1939 led to.

You do not need to be a Stem genius to succeed in finance and tech

Quantum Matters

Why quantum is a Board issue

Quantum computing is a Board issue. Boards of Directors are, however, not aware of this, except in a minority of well-publicised cases.

Does this matter, even as billions of dollars pour into the industry, M&A is on fire – there are rumours that Alphabet is due to spin out its quantum unit – universities ramp up their teaching, and governments publicise their ever-larger contributions? It does. Without buy-in from the Boards of listed and unlisted companies, experimentation is held back, user cases are fewer, and progress in the quantum ecosphere is missing the firepower of the private sector, except for specialised venture capital firms.

There are several obstacles to Boards taking quantum seriously. These range from a lack of knowledge to it being seen as a purely tech matter with scarce impact on the business as a whole. However, the biggest impediment is a lack of time. The pandemic, regulation, geopolitical risk, and Environmental Social Governance (ESG) are the time-consuming priorities discussed at Board level.

To make inroads, the best strategy for governments and quantum firms seeking support and engagement is to emphasise how quantum can transform the sustainability and competitive position of companies, with cybersecurity improvements as the third leg of the stool.

SUSTAINABILITY

The outcomes of the recent United Nations Climate Conference (COP-26) Summit in Scotland were reported as positive. But environmental change cannot rely solely on countries and people polluting less.

The solution lies in technology, or in Bill Gates’s words: “innovation is the only way the world can cut net greenhouse gas emissions from roughly 51bn tonnes per year to zero by 2050.”

Quantum computing can help in myriad ways – see here. Already, in today’s era of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) – when processors of over one hundred qbits are still not advanced enough to profit sustainably from quantum advantage – mobility firms like Volkswagen are experimenting on the optimisation of both their complex supply chains and bus routes in busy cities. These may not sound like ground-breaking trials, but the implication is a major cut in polluting footprints.

Or take the 100-year-old process for producing ammonia fertilizer, called Haber-Bosch. It consumes an estimated 3%-5% of all the natural gas produced on the planet. Quantum can help humanity understand how bacteria naturally produce ammonia using considerably less energy. The resulting ‘green ammonia’ would substantially reduce emissions in one of the major carbon dioxide polluting processes.

Over the last few years Boards of Directors of companies – from evident carbon polluters like oil & gas companies through to all others – have seen a sea change in how investors assess them. Larry Fink, who heads up the largest asset manager in the world, BlackRock, has stated that the impact of the environment will be transformational.

The CEO of the $9.5 trillion firm said in 2021: “I believe, more than ever before, that environmental issues and sustainability issues are going to become more and more dominant…”.

What this means in practice is that companies are having to disclose how their business model will be compatible with a net-zero economy, and “how this plan is being incorporated into your long-term strategy and reviewed by your Board of Directors.” (My italics).

And when the Board is involved, progress happens.

As an added bonus, Jon Hammant, Head of Compute for AWS in the UK, notes that quantum computing gives a helping hand to a sustainable future in another way. It has a smaller power consumption due to the exponential growth of its processing capacity via qbits, when compared to a classical computer, which in contrast uses ever more power.

COMPETITION

As well as the need for a sustainability transformation, Boards are focused on competition, alert to the possibility of a disruptive technology competitor which could make their company redundant in a snap.

The only defence is offence, or constant innovation, in which quantum stands to be a major helper. Intriguingly, there is no need to wait for the vast costs of building a quantum computer to come down – the cloud provides entry with variable, low costs.

Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft’s Azure and IBM’s Q all give clients access to a variety of quantum hardware from well-known names in the field like Rigetti, IonQ and D-Wave.

Alex Challans, Co-Founder of data platform, The Quantum Insider, sees huge growth in the quantum cloud confluence: “What we’re seeing is a market that could be worth four billion dollars by 2025 and 26 billion dollars by 2030.”

Diane Côté, the former Chief Risk Officer of the London Stock Exchange Group who now sits on the Board of French bank Société Générale, is adamant that firms need to be in the sandbox of quantum experimentation or be left behind as the technology ramps up exponentially.

HSBC provides a case study of how to participate at a minimum level to boost practical applications.  Through the Next Applications of Quantum Computing (NEASQC) partnership, which involves a four-year EU grant, the global bank is working with academic and corporate partners to develop open-sourced software using quantum technology by 2022.

Others are taking bigger bets. Participants at the November 2021 City Quantum Summit * at the Mansion House in the City of London, heard Rigetti’s Head of Europe, Marco Paini, and Oxford Instrument’s Managing Director Stuart Woods, elaborate on a project with bank Standard Chartered to improve volatility predictions in financial markets.

The numbers tell the story: total capital raised in 2021 up to November is around $2.8bn, compared to $1.0bn in 2020, and $300m in 2019, according to The Quantum Insider.

The data platform highlights that average deal sizes have shot up as the industry moves from Seed – Series A to Series B to D, with a notable Series D round this year being $450m going into PsiQuantum. Increasing numbers of $100m+ rounds are forecast for 2022-2023.

A step up in Mergers & Acquisitions and SPACS is also expected. In 2021 Honeywell merged its quantum division with Cambridge Quantum, to form Quantinuum, In December 2021, US company Odyssey Therapeutics bought London-based Rahko, which is developing quantum computer software for drug discovery.

IonQ and Arqit are now listed via SPACS, with Rigetti going through the SPAC process at the time of writing.

CYBERSECURITY

The third way to capture the attention of Boards is to note the cybersecurity implications of quantum. There is, however, a caveat. Too many Directors and Non-Executive Directors delegate to their Chief Technology Officer or Chief Information Security Officer, neither of which are Board roles. The rare exception to this is when there is a breach and a crisis.

Yet cyber risk is a critical issue for Boards in terms of business continuity, loss of reputation and regulatory fines.

The US-based National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is due to announce postquantum public-key cryptography standards in early 2022. Given the institution’s dominance in the Western world, there is little doubt this will prove a wake-up call to firms that have ignored the need to upgrade – a tedious, complex and time-consuming process, but one that is mission critical.

CONCLUSION

In October 2021 the White House held its first ever quantum Summit, followed a month later by the US and UK government announcing a wide-ranging cooperation agreement in quantum technologies. Awareness of the increasing advances and importance of quantum is starting to permeate through the corporate landscape.

2022-23 can be the time where Directors of corporates in the financial, manufacturing and retail sectors, among others, start to ask the question at Board meetings: what is our company’s strategy to incorporate quantum technology? But for the question to be asked, governments, quantum firms and quantum enthusiasts need to focus on explaining the massive advantages of becoming involved in a mind-boggling technology that can drive sustainability, profitability and security.

*Redcliffe Advisory is the organiser of The City Quantum and AI Summit. To express interest in the October 11, 2022 Summit, please get in touch karina.robinson@robinsonhambro.com

This is a short version of an article that is due to appear in “Chancen und Risiken der Quantentechnologien”, to be published by Springer in Q1 2022, and which has articles by a variety of business and science leaders

Quantum Matters – Quantum Culture

Not just another brick in the wall  

“You think you are the messiahs!” cries out Lily, the super-hero of BBC series Devs, to the bosses in charge of the secretive quantum unit.

That slur can just as easily be applied to the Big Tech chiefs, who started out with missions encapsulated in Google’s motto “Do no evil,” yet proceeded to abuse their monopolistic powers, promote addictive behaviours and allow hate speech to flourish.

Can a different culture be created in the newly emerging quantum ecosphere?

This matters to the world. The Quantum Computing market is forecast to be worth $50bn by 2030, only nine years away. The pace of funds into the sector has already accelerated. Data platform The Quantum Insider (TQI) notes that total disclosed capital flows into the sector were $1.9bn in the first half of 2021, compared to $1bn in all of 2020.

And quantum computing’s capacity to change the world for good can best be harnessed through a diverse workforce working in an inclusive culture that supports stakeholder capitalism.

The key challenge – a decent culture – also matters to quantum companies themselves for three reasons: innovation, recruitment and funding.

Innovation

Similar to all nascent sectors, innovation is key to the development of profitable companies producing jobs and goods.

More inclusive companies are 1.7 times more likely to be innovation leaders in their field, according to a Deloitte report. Gender-diverse companies are 15% more likely to outperform their peers, while ethnically diverse ones are 35% more likely, according to a McKinsey report.

Even without citing hosts of corroborating studies, common sense dictates that the wider the range of opinions, the more chances of new ideas arising. The most productive meetings for transformative ideas are often those where disagreements flourish. The flame of innovation is often created out of friction; group think is the result of bonhomie.

Given that human beings have around 188 cognitive biases, ranging from the self-explanatory Familiarity Bias to the Just World Hypothesis, recruiting in one’s own image is difficult to resist. It behoves quantum company CEOs and their colleagues to diversify the mix, adding to the mainly white and male university PhDs and tech executives in order to bolster innovation.

Recruitment

There is a global war for talent in many sectors. Goldman Sachs, an erstwhile golden destination, is seeing some problems in recruitment. And those it does recruit are now surprisingly vocal. Young bankers complained to senior management about their workload earlier this year, a story avidly picked up by the media.

The UK’s mission to attract the best global talent is not helped by its expensive, time-consuming new immigration regime. One well known quantum start-up was forced to set up two subsidiaries in Continental Europe due to Brexit. On the plus side, the company was pleasantly surprised by the response to a recruitment ad there. Unfortunately, this stood in sharp contrast to its UK job advertisement, which received far fewer responses.

Employees and future employees are empowered, and they are demanding workplace cultures that align with their values. Over 85% of Gen Z believe companies should stand for more than just making a profit. Note that at Apple there was a successful petition to dismiss a well-known new hire with a sexist reputation, as well as a public letter demanding flexible return-to-work policies.

And yet, basic prejudice persists. A female student working on her quantum PhD at an Oxbridge university was asked by her professor: “How do you expect to progress if you keep smiling all the time?!”

Oxford Quantum Circuits (OQC) is doing all the right things and reaping the fruits: over 40% of its job applicants are women. One of its latest ads used these phrases: “We aspire to thrive…thanks to your diversity of thoughts and background…We are building quantum computers to enable life changing discoveries.” The company, led by Ilana Wisby, anonymises all the CVs it receives, posts roles on diversity-focused job boards (LBGT+, black engineers and others) and celebrates its new arrivals with photos on social media that highlight its diverse workforce.

Although helpful, a female CEO is not essential to enable a wider recruitment strategy. Cambridge-based Riverlane, for instance, headed by Steve Brierley, lists its first two values as being “supportive” and “collaborative” and posts a friendly group image of its relatively diverse company.

Denise Ruffner and Andre König of Women in Quantum (WIQ) and OneQuantum are the two major protagonists of the move to shake up the look of the industry and widen access. Their fast-growing mentoring schemes, online recruitment fairs and the setting up of free-to-use country chapters – from Zimbabwe to Nepal to Argentina – are inspiring a new generation.

TQD has been highlighting the issue, while The City Quantum Summit in November will host a special panel on the subject.

To create an inclusive culture, the Good Finance Framework is a good place to start. Designed by The Inclusion Initiative’s Director, Associate Professor Grace Lordan at the London School of Economics*, its 10 steps will also help boost staff loyalty and enthusiasm. This is crucial when quantum companies are competing for the best talent against other industries, as well as between themselves.

What is relevant for talent, is just as relevant for funding.

Funding

Political guru Frank Lunz predicts that how you treat your employees will be the single most important issue for companies over the coming years – above sustainability and shareholder returns.

It is an issue institutional investors are grappling with as part of their Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.  Regulation will drive it. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this year approved a proposal from Nasdaq, the stock market for tech, requiring its listed companies to publish, comply or explain on board diversity. They must have “two diverse directors, one identifying as female and another as an underrepresented minority or LBGTQ+.”

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has proposals out for consultation on how it can accelerate the pace of meaningful change on Diversity & Inclusion, noting that it is relevant for risk management, good conduct, healthy working cultures and innovation (my italics).

The writing is on the wall: whether public or private, investors are going to be leading a push for the right cultures. Getting ahead of the game is the best bet for any quantum company.

Build back better is a much over-used phrase. But it encapsulates the desire to avoid the mistakes of the past. In the case of the quantum ecosphere, steering clear of Big Tech’s grave errors to create a better world, both within quantum companies and through quantum computing, is key.

*To note, the author is Co-Director of LSE’s The Inclusion Initiative for the City.

The City Quantum Summit at the Mansion House on November 10th is hosted by the Lord Mayor of the City of London and Redcliffe Advisory, and supported by the National Quantum Computing Centre (NQCC) with TQD as media partner. Diversity and Inclusion is at its core. Register here

Quantum Matters: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of Quantum Cybersecurity

With a US inteligence report confirming that President Putin authorised a pro-Trump influence campaign in the latest election, China and the US in a stand-off, and the recklessness of ransomware groups tolerated, and at times abetted, by state actors, geographical risk is at its highest in a long time. See my latest column in The Quantum Daily on how we are skirting the edge. And what steps can be taken to mitigate risk.

An assassination in Sarajevo. The subsequent chain of events ultimately leads to a world war. An estimated 20 million people die.

A small US bank succumbs to a cyberattack. Amidst carefully placed misinformation campaigns, bank runs and riots, the repercussions start to drag down the financial system. The US blames Russia, calls on NATO under Article 5, where an attack on one is an attack on all, and step-by-step the world explodes into the Third World War.

What unifies these two scenarios is that we are living in an era reminiscent of pre-World War I: the seeds of conflict are sown, irrigated by mistrust, and one spark can start a wildfire.

Last month at their Geneva summit Joe Biden made clear to Vladimir Putin where the US red lines in cybersecurity lie. “Certain critical infrastructure should be off-limits to attack, period,” said the US President.  One of the 16 sectors mentioned was financial services. It is a given that the message was also aimed at China, Iran and other hostile states with a track record of cyberattacks.

The US government has been in contact with American banks this year to chivy them into increasing their cyber defences, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that cyberattacks are the biggest risk to the system. They can trigger a liquidity run and lead to solvency issues.

One of the most worrying possibilities is a supply chain attack. In a little-publicised paper published by the New York Federal Reserve, Cyber Risk and the US Financial System: A Pre-Mortem Analysis, the authors note that an attack on a significant service provider which connects small and medium sized banks has the potential to cause a systemic event. The concentration of banks using the few existing cloud providers, like AWS or Microsoft’s Azure, for instance, is a clear risk.

The authors also note that in a five-day cyber attack, nearly half of US financial institutions would run out of reserves by day five.

The top concern is not so much a provocation, as a misjudgement, ultimately leading to WWIII. Take the recent Colonial Pipeline attack by DarkSide. They planned to attack the business side, not the operational side, which is responsible for transmitting roughly 45% of East Coast fuel. They knew the latter would be perceived as an attack on infrastructure, bringing the might of the US intelligence services down on them for straying into the political arena.

“We are apolitical, we do not participate in geopolitics, do not need to tie us with a defined government and look for our other motives,” they swiftly posted on their Dark Web page, as they sought to excuse their error and distance themselves from suspicions of links to the Russian government.

There is no easy solution to the uncertainty of who is behind a cyber attack, nor to mishaps prevalent in a digital world.

But there is a clear need for key sectors to take a big step up in cybersecurity. Not least with China – which just celebrated the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party amid Taiwan fly-overs – on what looks ever more likely to be a collision course with the West.

Paradoxically, the quantum industry may be the answer to cybersecurity, while also being its biggest threat. The creation of quantum keys which are certifiably random – unlike the current RSA encryption and other standard ones – could provide hacker-free security. At least eleven global banks are exploring quantum safe protocols for security, ranging from JP Morgan to BNP Paribas and RBC of Canada, as reported here by The Quantum Daily (TQD). Around thirty-five quantum companies in countries ranging from Poland to Singapore are working on quantum cybersecurity products.

A handful of years down the line powerful quantum computers may be able to decrypt the data already being harvested by ransomware gangs and hostile nation states – yet another reason to experiment with current quantum cryptography.

Although information is hard to come by, China reportedly has quantum key distribution technology over fibre optic cable between Beijing and Shanghai. In essence, a quantum internet, providing hundreds of kilometres of totally secure communications.

The West is intent on catching up, with governments and companies spending large sums. Germany, for instance, announced in May a €2bn investment in quantum and related technologies, while a month later British start-up Arquit announced a link with defence company Northrop Grumman to explore its own end-to-end quantum encryption.  Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy last year unveiled a blueprint for a quantum internet.

The Cold War arms race mostly involved creating weapons of destruction, the so-called Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine which, arguably, kept the peace over many decades. In the 21st century, the most important advance in keeping world peace will be security and protection: Mutually Assured Defence – not as MAD.