Jordan’s hard-won lessons for an age of existential risk

“Believe it or not, we are very optimistic about the future,” said Muhannad Shehadeh, Jordan’s deputy prime minister and minister of state for economic affairs.

These may seem blithe words coming from a country bordered by Israel, Syria and Iraq, with Iran a missile launch away. In fact, Jordan is a model of resilience. As the UK and other developed countries face threats from hybrid wars – unconventional attacks, such as disinformation and cyberattacks – and frontier technology, there are lessons to be learned.

Speaking at a September roundtable convened by the CISI, Mr Shehadeh wryly joked that the country was subjected to a new crisis every two years, from the financial crisis in 2008 to the Gulf Wars, and all the way to the general regional wars of today.

“We have intercepted 450 flying [hostile] objects, and our population has grown by 20% in two years,” he noted. Despite the threats the country faces, the International Monetary Fund’s June 2026 report for Jordan forecasts GDP growth of up to 2.7% in 2026, rising to 3.1% in 2027, with inflation at 2.3%.

The report praises the swift response by the authorities to the latest crisis, as well as continued progress on reforms to support resilience, economic growth, and fiscal sustainability. Additionally, the country’s stock market is on a record run, driven by foreign investor interest.

Expertise, agility and resilience

What are the lessons from Jordan relevant for the resilience of the UK and other developed economies?

Two come to mind:

1. Expertise of the officials. Technocratic officials with international education and experience run the economic and financial institutions.

2. An ability to adjust to changing circumstances. “The game is dynamic,” said Mr Shehadeh. The Jordanian government, for example, has approved capital market reforms to attract foreign funds, and Jordanian banks have expanded in Iraq and Syria, taking advantage of changing circumstances in both countries. 

Jordan’s experience highlights the potential value of continuity, agility and specialist expertise within economic and financial institutions, particularly when responding to repeated crises.

In contrast, the UK has experienced frequent changes in political leadership since Brexit. The average tenure of a British prime minister over this period is two years, according to the think tank UK in a Changing Europe, while that of ministers is much shorter.

An era of existential risks

Public awareness of potential threats has also been raised as an issue. “Government must be more explicit about the threat,” said General Sir Richard Barrons, KCB, CBE, speaking at an event hosted by The Resilience Imperative, an organisation focused on building UK resilience and raising awareness of hybrid war.

Sir Richard, who co-authored Britain’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review, noted that we are now living in an era of “existential risks”, including the manipulation of populations via disinformation, which he called “a much more powerful weapon than missiles”.

The theme was taken up by Prime Minister Andy Burnham in his recent United Nations speech. He told the General Assembly that the Kremlin spends around £1.3bn each year on manipulating information, using bots and falsified newspaper articles, and forging the branding of institutions like the BBC.

“We're talking about an insidious campaign that reaches into people's homes and twists what they feel about their own country and community – creating a narrative of decline, stoking division and sowing despair,” he said.

To that risk must be added the risk of AI going rogue on its own, let alone in the hands of enemies. AI behemoth OpenAI admitted on 25 September that its tools may have breached the systems of “dozens” of governments, universities and public agencies.

What makes this all the more frightening is that the possible security violations were only discovered months later, when OpenAI was forced to review its agents’ behaviour on the back of a well-publicised hack of Hugging Face, a machine learning hub.

Jean Charles Ellermann-Kingombe, Assistant Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), in charge of cyber and digital transformation, will discuss ‘Quantum and AI in the age of technological Darwinism’ at The City Quantum & AI Summit on 7 October, for which CISI has endorsed CPD. NATO and the EU are currently grappling with how to respond to Russia’s hybrid war at an appropriate level to deter threats such as arson and drone incursions without provoking a major attack.

Message from the markets

The definitions of risk and resilience are changing in a multipolar world facing a tsunami of dangers. Markets tell that tale clearly. The Kingdom of Jordan’s US$700m seven-year Eurobond, issued at the end of 2025, is yielding around 7%. The US ten-year Treasury bond is currently yielding just above 5.2%.

Less than a 200-basis point difference between a superpower and a small country situated in a conflict zone evidences a world where safety and security are in short supply and adaptability is all.

In an Age of Deep Tech, The City Summit Bets on Human Connections

Insider Brief

• The sixth annual City Quantum & AI Summit will bring leaders from technology, defense, finance, government and research to London’s Mansion House on Oct. 7.

• The program will examine quantum and AI applications and risks across cybersecurity, finance, life sciences, space and national security.

• The summit will emphasize plain-language discussions, cross-sector networking and governance for technologies developing faster than existing institutions and regulations.

• Images: Paulina Roots Photography

The technologies changing defense, medicine and finance are advancing faster than the institutions expected to manage them. Getting the right people in the same room is a critical step toward optimizing the good that these technologies can do, while minimizing potential adverse effects.

The sixth annual City Quantum & AI Summit is aimed at bringing those people – military leaders, technology executives, researchers, investors and policymakers – to the Mansion House in London on Oct. 7. The one-day event is organized around the theme “Connections in Chaos.”

Karina Robinson, CEO of Redcliffe Advisory and founder of the summit, said the theme reflects a loss of predictability in international affairs, compounded by the rapid development of artificial intelligence and the emerging possibilities of quantum technology.

“The modicum of predictability that existed in world affairs a decade ago has vanished,” said Robinson. “How to cope? Develop personal connections. The Summit’s focus has always been to create networks across countries and across sectors. It is the best source of innovation and, in our age of AI, the last refuge of humanity.”

The summit’s program treats those human connections as practical infrastructure. It brings together industries that face related technological and security challenges but often operate separately. Defense officials will meet quantum and AI executives. Medical researchers will discuss computing with technology specialists. Investors and financial executives will examine how companies can move from research to commercial deployment.

According to Robinson, the objective of the summit is not simply to present new technology, but also help decision-makers understand how quantum and AI could affect their organizations, even if they lack scientific or engineering backgrounds.

Defense Beyond the Battlefield

Defense will open the program, reflecting the growing role of advanced computing in national security.

A panel titled “Safety and Security in Troubled Times” will be chaired by Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, former chief of the Defence Staff. Scheduled participants include Enrique Lizaso, co-founder and CEO of Multiverse Computing; Tony Lowe, CEO of quantum-sensing company Delta.g; Jeanette van Halteren, Managing Consultant at Thales; and Dr Ben Tallis, Head of Policy & Analysis at defense technology company Helsing.

The discussion will extend beyond weapons and conventional military operations to threats against digital infrastructure. Cyberattacks can disrupt communications, financial services, energy networks and public agencies without crossing a physical border.

“Defence is a clear example of the Summit’s theme,” said Robinson. “The panel is entitled Safety and Security in Troubled Times because we aren’t just talking about tanks and drones and territory, but about defending ourselves from cybersecurity attacks which can bring society to a standstill. We also have a Qnote from NATO’s Assistant Secretary General, Jean-Charles Ellerman Kingombe. The death of NATO has been much spoken of lately. It is still alive and kicking, and an indication that organisations to connect countries have value.”

Quantum computing adds urgency to the cybersecurity discussion. Large, sufficiently capable quantum computers could eventually defeat several forms of encryption now used to protect government, corporate and personal information. Governments and businesses are therefore beginning to adopt post-quantum cryptography, a new class of security methods designed to withstand attacks from both conventional and quantum computers.

AI presents a more immediate set of opportunities and risks. Defense organizations are already exploring its use in intelligence analysis, logistics, cybersecurity and planning. The same tools can also make cyberattacks faster and more difficult to detect.

Ellerman Kingombe, NATO’s assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, is scheduled to deliver an address on cyber defense in the quantum and AI era. The appearance continues a longstanding relationship between the summit and NATO.

Credit: Paulina Roots Photography

Connecting Science With Capital

The program will also examine whether financial markets and institutions can provide the patient capital required by quantum and other deep-technology companies.

These businesses often face a difficult path to market. They may need years of research, specialized equipment and highly trained workers before producing meaningful revenue. That model does not always fit the short development cycles associated with conventional software startups.

Dame Julia Hoggett, chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, and Emily Turner, CEO of HSBC Innovation Bank UK, are scheduled to take part in a panel on financing innovation. U.S. venture investors are also expected to participate.

The session will consider how banks, venture firms and public markets can support companies as they progress from scientific research to products and commercial operations. It also places finance within the summit’s wider theme. Scientists may develop the technology, but investors, corporate customers and public institutions determine whether it can reach the market at scale.

Robinson said identifying companies early has helped sustain the summit over six years. Previous programs featured executives from Oxford Quantum Circuits, Nu Quantum and Multiverse Computing when the companies were considerably smaller.

The setting – the Mansion House, the official residence of the Lord Mayor of London – adds another connection between old and new forms of commerce. It has long served as a center for business and civic events.

“The Mansion House is a palace with glittering chandeliers and vast columns,” said Robinson. “Over the centuries it has been a centre of commerce and deal-making. It provides a unique and contrasting backdrop to frontier technology.”

The summit will open with remarks from Alderman Bronek Masojada, who is expected to become Lord Mayor, followed by Robinson.

From Life Sciences to Space

Robinson pointed to life sciences and space as two areas where the summit will emphasize the constructive uses of AI and quantum technology.

“I am hugely looking forward to the Space panel, in association with Farnborough International Airshow,” said Robinson. “Their CEO, Gareth Rogers, will chair it. There will certainly be positive news from the panellists about their advances. The other panel that will focus on positive disruption is the Life Sciences one. Here the intersection of Quantum and AI will figure prominently.”

The life sciences panel will include Dr. Lara Jehi, chief research information officer at Cleveland Clinic; Sergii Strelchuk, Lead Researcher on quantum at Wellcome Sanger Institute; and Anthony Rowe, vice president of Onyx Research at GSK.

AI is already used to analyze medical information, identify patterns in biological data and assist researchers searching for drug candidates. Future quantum computers could add new tools for simulating molecules and chemical reactions, although the systems available today remain limited.

Ashley Fieglein Johnson, president and chief financial officer of Planet; Will Whitehorn, chair of Seraphim Space Investment Trust; and Phil Cooper, commercial lead for aerospace, satellite and defense at Amazon Web Services, are scheduled to participate in the space panel. 

It will be chaired by Gareth Rogers, CEO of Farnborough International Airshow, one of the biggest trade shows in the world, which brings together defence and aerospace every two years.

The discussion is expected to examine the growing connections among satellites, cloud computing and AI. Spacecraft generate large amounts of information that must be processed, transmitted and converted into useful observations for businesses and governments.

Another featured session, called “Entangled Exchange,” will bring together Gerald Mullally, CEO of Oxford Quantum Circuits, and Nic Harrigan, quantum manager at Nvidia. The conversation will explore the relationship between quantum computing and AI.

AI is increasingly being used to design, calibrate and operate quantum hardware. Researchers are also investigating whether future quantum systems could assist with selected AI, simulation and optimization tasks. The two technologies are therefore developing as parts of a broader computing system rather than as isolated fields.

Plain English for Complex Technology

Making those subjects accessible remains a central part of the summit’s approach, Robinson said. Its intended audience includes board members, investors, bankers and defense executives who need to understand the business and strategic implications without receiving a technical lecture.

“‘No lingo, no jargon, plain English only,’ is our strap line,” said Robinson. “We set up the Summit to engage the non-technological, non-scientific public in the exciting – and at times scary – developments in Quantum & AI. Board members, non-tecchie investors, bankers and defence executives all appreciate the event as a way to understand at a macro level technologies that are relevant to their organisations or could be interesting investment opportunities. Words like entanglement, superposition or inference are prohibited on pain of death!”

The program will include a special reception with Sir Peter Knight, an influential figure in the development of the United Kingdom’s quantum research program. Robinson said the reception will recognize his contribution to the country’s position in quantum science.

Governance and ethics will also form part of the event. An invitation-only dinner sponsored by Clifford Chance will feature a discussion between Roman Orús, co-founder and chief scientific officer of Multiverse Computing and a member of the United Nations Independent Scientific Panel on AI, and Thore Graepel, a machine-learning professor at University College London and former distinguished research scientist at Google DeepMind.

Jonathan Kewley, chair of Clifford Chance’s global tech group, will moderate this conversation, examining how institutions can develop ethical and governance systems for technologies whose capabilities are evolving more quickly than many existing rules.

“One of our past sponsors said the Summit combined ‘a super power-networking platform and a vital source of information exchange on the mega-trends of our time’. We are well set to repeat the winning formula this year!” said Robinson. 

To register, please click here.

Global lessons from a Spanish start-up

In July, the Spanish AI/quantum firm Multiverse Computing became a European unicorn. It announced it had almost closed its €500m funding round, which would value it at around €2bn post-money.

When I joined as its senior adviser in April 2022, the firm had only 30 employees and two locations: its headquarters in San Sebastian and an office in Toronto, Canada, whose first client was the Bank of Canada.

With more than 400 staff representing over 45 nationalities and operations in more than ten locations, including San Francisco and Qatar, what lessons can start-ups glean from the firm’s trajectory? 

Government support

The Basque city, best known for its culinary scene, was not an obvious place to establish a frontier technology firm. Enrique Lizaso, the co-founder and CEO told me he attributes it to the San Sebastian city council and the Basque government’s vision and political will in courting the start-up in its early days to coax it to begin its corporate journey in San Sebastian.

“They understood that the Basque Country needed a competitive new industry to be based there. They took a serious risk on small companies – they bet resources on firms that might fail,” he said.

In the ensuing years, the government’s business-friendly policies and its ability to react quickly to the demands of deep technology companies kept the firm anchored in the Basque Country.

Now, in 2026, a northern region of Spain with a population of only 2.2 million hosts a thriving quantum, AI and biotech community, its strength reflected in IBM’s decision to install its most advanced quantum computer in San Sebastian rather than in a larger city like Barcelona.

Flexibility is a must

Clad in his signature waistcoat, jacket and bowtie, Lizaso warned startups against focusing on a particular solution – flexibility is a must – and says it is key to “pay attention to what is happening around you”.

Multiverse Computing began its journey concentrating on quantum algorithms for finance. Its commercial mindset led it to ask customers what they needed – something that many start-ups led by academics fail to do – while figuring out how this would fit with the wave of AI sweeping the world.

The consequence was technology born out of quantum and AI that can compress large language models (LLMs), reducing the computing resources needed to run them.

It is a solution to one of the biggest problems facing the world: the massive energy use and cost of LLMs. Already in 2024, data centres consumed more energy than the entire annual electricity of the UK, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The institution expects that to double by 2030.

Consider contingencies

Multiverse is concentrating on the demand for energy-efficient solutions that can continue operating in military or political conflict. This means enabling AI ‘on the edge’. “No one thinks of using a mobile phone without AI, but it can’t be on the cloud [for security and cost reasons],” said Lizaso.

Companies are becoming more aware of the possibility of both Wi-Fi and access to the cloud being cut off, either by an enemy or, potentially, by an executive order from the US government. Most major cloud providers are American.

Consider complementary skills

Lizaso also advises startups to ensure their founders have different talents. Lizaso’s background is in banking and medicine, while his co-founders bring expertise in areas including quantum computing, technology, marketing and entrepreneurship.

The four founders worked together for a couple of years before starting Multiverse Computing, another important component on the human side, and “we have fun together [outside the office]”, said Lizaso.

Consider culture

That is where San Sebastian’s reputation for great food comes in. It has the highest concentration of Michelin-starred restaurants per capita in the world, plus mouth-watering local pintxos bars. All four founders share a love of good food and good wine. Yet another reason to maintain Multiverse Computing’s headquarters in the seaside city, and for quantum-AI start-ups to be open to surprising locations.

Can teaching social skills improve social mobility?

Social mobility has stalled in America and Britain. And since the COVID-19 pandemic many young people face new disadvantages hindering their educational and professional prospects. Could social skills be the key to improving their opportunities, and kickstarting social mobility? Karina Robinson looks at the arguments for businesses and governments investing in how we interact with each other.

The Cambridge Business Dictionary defines “small talk” as “polite conversation about things that are not important.” What this does not tell you is that it is a learnable skill, and the key to unlocking the door to professional advancement.

At a meeting on social mobility hosted by the Lord Mayor’s Appeal, the boss of an investment firm said about discussing art, philosophy and books that she hadn’t read, “I was smart enough to do the job but lost my voice in those conversations.”

Nicole Williams wasn’t intimidated by the legal knowledge and intelligence necessary for the high-powered job she held. She, and many others, are intimidated by the social prerequisites and what she called the ‘’unspoken rules of the City.”

It is time to put social skills front and centre in all social mobility policies. Not least because low economic growth, the COVID-19 pandemic and artificial intelligence (AI) are leading to ever worse outcomes for those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Social mobility is getting worse

According to Britain’s Department for Education the latest results of GCSEs, the exams at the end of secondary schools in England and Wales, show a disadvantage gap index at 3.92. The index, which tracks the difference in educational outcomes for those from different backgrounds, is close to the highest it has been in a decade. It had previously dropped to a low of 3.66 in 2019 and 2020. The pandemic and lack of school funding then set it on an upward trend.

The freezing of social mobility extends beyond Britain. According to Opportunity Insights, 90 per cent of Americans born in 1940 earned more than their parents but children born in the mid-1980s only have a 50 per cent chance of doing so.

Opportunity Insights promotes policy changes to revive the “American dream” of social mobility, such as subsidised housing vouchers to help parents move neighbourhoods.  But while their experiment was successful, such interventions are too expensive for governments to fund on a large scale.

AI is set to exacerbate social inequality. AI-driven productivity boosts are likely to be skewed towards high-income rather than lower-wage workers, argues Sam Manning of the Brookings Institution, and AI-driven automation could increase the share of income going to capital at the expense of labour. What does this mean? That the wealthier in society will benefit from the productivity gains, while the poorer will lose out.

Additionally, large language models learn from existing data, worsening biases in models that are being used ever more widely for credit decisions and recruitment.

How social skills can improve social mobility

The British government’s Schools White Paper, published in February, aims to halve the attainment gap between disadvantaged children and their peers over the next decade.

Speaking about the planned reforms Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, called them “a golden opportunity to cut the link between background and success”. But the reality is not so simple.

Governments and charity programmes aiming to boost social mobility do have an impact. And companies aiming to increase the social diversity of their workforce are told to create wider hiring paths, internal social mobility networks and extra training in hard skills. A report by The Inclusion Initiative at LSE, in association with bank HSBC and Progress Together, a social mobility charity, created a five-point blueprint to change management behaviour. These include making unwritten rules explicit, reviewing any biases in advancement opportunities and making a concerted effort to ensure diverse voices are heard in meetings.

But none of these interventions focus on a realistic solution to the biggest issue in social mobility at work: networking is as important as school, apprenticeship or professional qualifications.

Grace Lordan of The Inclusion Initiative notes that workers from lower socio-economic backgrounds often lack “web of contacts”, such as networks and mentors, that help others advance. She calls for companies and schools to explicitly teach these soft skills to all colleagues and students – from small talk to approaching senior colleagues – to level the playing field.

Lifelong learning at work is a necessity in our accelerated world

Businesses are generally eager for their staff to take courses ranging from AI to compliance.  It is time to add networking to the mix.

Training in social skills is not the equivalent of denying a social background. Instead, it teaches how to change the subject to an area of mutual interest, how to approach a senior figure in the workplace and how to build your network.

Jon Hammant, who ran a $6 billion business for Amazon Web Services, described a time when, during a meeting at a consulting firm, “the other managing directors were discussing their weekend grouse shooting plans. Growing up in social housing, the only shootings I’d ever heard about were of a very different kind. That cultural gap doesn’t close on its own – we need to teach people how to navigate the room, not just hope they figure it out.”

Why is teaching social skills important?

Education in social skills is not new. John D. Rockefeller claimed that the ability to deal with people is “as purchasable a commodity as sugar or coffee” and hugely valuable. And for hundreds of years finishing schools taught upper class girls how to behave in social situations.

But the training that I am suggesting will help others, such as pandemic-era students whose communication skills, whatever their background, are underdeveloped; the shy; and those with mild autism. Bill Gates credits his sociable mother with forcing her withdrawn, geeky son to interact with adults, a skill that proved invaluable in his interaction with powerful individuals, ultimately leading to the creation of one of the most valuable companies in the world. 

So an added benefit to the training will be transitioning from fear to finding enjoyment in social occasions that are intrinsic to a career and, just as much, to life.

Quantum sensing steps into the spotlight as innovation and insecurity reshape the world

by Karina Robinson FCSI(Hon)

In the Brothers Grimm fairy tale, Cinderella cooks, cleans and sleeps in a corner of the kitchen until the day she emerges into the spotlight and her fortunes change.

Quantum sensing – an advanced measurement technology that achieves a level of precision that classical sensors cannot – shares a similar story. While quantum computers attract public and government attention despite not being capable of carrying out a useful operation at scale, quantum sensors, labouring away in relative obscurity, are seeing their technological development gather pace.

Quantum sensors are being used across multiple industries, including healthcare – MRI machines use them. The race is on to decrease their size and cost to make them widely available for commercial use. Two examples serve to illustrate their usefulness.

Over 12 months ago, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s plane lost satellite signals while trying to land in Bulgaria. Russia was suspected but denied any involvement. The jamming of GPS navigation signals by an enemy has become more common anywhere near conflict zones.

As an alternative to GPS, quantum navigation uses quantum sensors to map the Earth’s magnetic field and pinpoint location. Airbus is among many aerospace companies currently testing the technology, which it says is “impermeable to GPS jamming or spoofing”.

Another example is in the energy sector. Delta.g, a UK-based quantum sensor company, manufactures quantum gravity sensors that provide subsurface information before ground is broken. This allows for the earlier detection of pipeline leaks, monitoring of carbon emissions and exploration of potential wells, a compelling advance in efficiency and productivity with environmental benefits.

According to Delta.g’s CEO Tony Lowe, these sensors could be produced commercially by the end of 2027. They would go from being the size of a large fridge to ultimately being the size of a Coke can.

The company recently announced an upcoming partnership with French energy giant TotalEnergies to advance subsurface intelligence. Lowe said: “The company mission is to be the Google Maps of the subsurface. We know more about the bottom of the ocean than we do about what is beneath our feet, and industry wastes billions every year because of it.”

It looks like Cinderella will be going to the ball sooner rather than later.

Innovation meets insecurity

Quantum and other frontier technologies were featured at the Farnborough International Airshow, which ran from 20 to 24 July. One of the premier European aerospace and defence fairs, its record numbers reflected a world that is, in the words of Blaise Metreweli, head of MI6, the most dangerous and contested in decades.

She pointed out in her December 2025 opening speech as chief of the Secret Intelligence Service that the UK is “now operating in a space between peace and war.” It is far from the only country doing so. Of the Farnborough exhibitors, ranging from well-known names like British Aerospace to Italy’s Leonardo, more than 63% were international.

The July event had sold out by October 2025 and required an extra exhibition hall. Of its record 1,636 exhibitors, 22% were there for the first time, highlighting new participants in the defence space. The same goes for investors. Over 600 finance and investment professionals showed up for the newly launched Aerospace Global Forum: Finance Summit. Innovation and investment were the new markers for Farnborough.

US firms took up over a third of the site’s total exhibition space, giving smaller, innovative firms access to some of the world’s biggest defence and aerospace buyers in one location. But the new emphasis on sovereignty – one of the issues dominating the show – in a world where US commitment to its allies is subject to tsunamis of change, made the US presence a double-edged sword.

Admiral Sir George Zambellas, a former First Sea Lord, put this clearly in an article on Galaxkey that focused on data as a national asset. His view is that the UK and others have been too complacent in choosing efficiency over data sovereignty. By accepting the convenience of information being in the cloud, virtually all run by American companies, their “data back door is wide open to exploitation in networks, communication systems, energy grids, logistics and digital infrastructure. And in the military.”

Supply chains in choppy waters

President Donald Trump’s pop-up tariffs, announced recently, have certainly added to the increased complexity of international trade and investment, already dealing with supply chains battered by a more hostile world and its logistical challenges.

For quantum sensors, for instance, the supply chain is a major vulnerability. Over 90% of the processing of ultra-pure materials needed for them takes place outside the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), according to a study for NATO by Heijman Consultancy and CJW Quantum Consulting.

Navigating the shoals of this new world disorder will take both technological and human skills. We wish the UK’s newly installed prime minister, Andy Burnham, the best of luck as he steers the ship of state over the next few years.

The opinions in this column are those of the author and not necessarily shared by the CISI.

Security, space and the Walbrook Club

On 16 June, Frances’s national cybersecurity agency ANSSI announced that it will not certify security products that lack quantum-resistant encryption from 2027. What it means in practice is that any company selling to state bodies will be shut out of the bidding for, say, infrastructure projects such as building data centres.

A week later, President Trump signed an executive order, ‘Securing the nation against advanced cryptographic attacks’. It brings forward deadlines for government agencies to transition to quantum-secure communications: December 2030 for key encryption systems and December 2031 for other systems.

This is a wake-up call to other countries. The French and the Americans are right to accelerate regulation for three reasons.

First, there has been a constant stream of news this year about quantum computing advancements.

Second, adversaries are harvesting data now, with the aim of decrypting it later when quantum computers reach that capability.

Third, the cost of cyberattacks is escalating. For instance, a 2025 attack on vehicle manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover had a UK financial impact of £1.9bn and affected over 5,000 organisations, according to estimates from the Cyber Monitoring Centre.

Adversaries are harvesting data now, with the aim of decrypting it later when quantum computers reach that capabilityAON’s biennial authoritative ‘Global risk management survey’ (GRMS) risk register, published in October 2025, continues to place cyberattacks as the number one risk, with AI adoption accelerating exposure. The GRMS also notes that geopolitical volatility is, for the first time, seen as a top ten risk. That feeds into the fragility of cyber safety, as hostile state actors support criminal groups targeting companies and governments.

Our world is too digital-dependent to allow lax deadlines for adopting the armour of post-quantum cryptography. The clarion call from the French and the Americans should be heeded by all.

Space to growQuantum and cybersecurity are two of the UK’s industrial strategy priority technologies. The others are AI, semiconductors, engineering biology and advanced connectivity. Space seems an odd omission, given its relevance to all those mentioned.

The global space economy could grow to US$1.8tn by 2035 from US$630bn in 2023, notes a report from the World Economic Forum and McKinsey. It can help deal with Earth’s many issues.

Data centres with their vast energy use and high costs? Cheaper to run in space, with the added environmental benefit of space-based solar power. Other benefits: satellite upgrades in situ without the need to bring down the hardware, biomedical research which could speed up drug discovery for cancers, and detection of outbreaks of crop disease through improved satellite communication.

One of the world’s most valuable companies is SpaceX. Although founder Elon Musk’s personality – arguably too big for this planet – played a part in its market capitalisation reaching around US$2.43tn following its IPO, experienced venture capital and institutional funds also bought into the equity issue on 12 June. The valuation suggests investors see value beyond the hype.

“The rate of growth of the space industry has been propelled by exponential declines in the cost of access to space,” notes Rob Desborough, managing partner of Seraphim Space. “It has fallen by 100 times in the last decade, with a further potential 100 times fall projected over the next decade.”

The investment trust’s global Space Index reports a record US$8bn in investment deployed in Q1 2026, double the last quarter of 2025, a clear indication that state actors and private companies are doubling down on the sector.

The UK has, as in many technologies, been outstanding on the science front and in financing start-ups. However, it is lagging in scale-up capital, currently standing 23rd place in the world for average deal size in the space sector, due to the lack of Series A/B funding and further fundraising.

The solution is twofold. The government should add the space sector to its industrial strategy, thus ensuring policy drivers on tax relief and incentives are put in place. And institutional UK funds should step up their involvement in the sector through the Mansion House Accord, a voluntary agreement to invest in non-listed assets.

A club with characterRocket-like in its ascent is the Walbrook Club. Under the leadership of the Hon. Philip Palumbo, who took over from his father in 2018, membership numbers have risen to 650, all squeezed into a beautiful little Queen-Anne style brick house, sandwiched between a Wren church and modern, glass-abundant buildings like that of Bloomberg.

Guest speakers range from ambassadors to CEOs to politicians.

Many years ago, I overheard a conversation between two Conservative Party politicians in the bar area. One told the other she planned to “throw her hat in the ring” to be prime minister. She made it. Her companion became her chancellor. Liz Truss did not last long, nor did Kwasi Kwarteng.

Let us hope for some prime ministerial stability amidst yet another reshuffle at the top of UK government.

The Walbrook, unlike cryptography, the space sector and government, needs no improvement.

Introducing a new Review column by quantum expert Karina Robinson FCSI(Hon), exploring the worlds of technology, investment and innovation through a personal lens

You know quantum has reached the mainstream when ultra-fashionable Cannes, better known for its iconic film festival, joins the party. The inaugural World Quantum Cannes Festival has just been announced for late November.

This follows a home run for the sector in the past month. Three numbers sum it up:

• The US government spent US$2bn on buying stakes in quantum companies, a vote of confidence in the industry.

• Quantinuum, the merger of UK spin-out Cambridge Quantum and US entity Honeywell Quantum, just listed on Nasdaq at an unexpectedly high valuation of US$15.7bn.

• Boston Consulting Group's report on the global quantum industry, highlighting technical breakthroughs and enterprise engagement, forecasts long-term value creation of up to US$850bn.

What about the UK?

Despite the revolving door for prime ministers under the previous Conservative governments and, most likely, under Labour this year, UK governments have done a stellar job in creating a thriving quantum ecosphere. The UK stands in second place after the US for the number of private quantum companies and ranks third globally for the impact and quality of its academic research. This is all the more admirable considering the parlous state of the nation’s finances.

The successful recipe lies in productive collaboration between academia, the private sector and government. Over the past dozen years, spin-outs from world-class universities have found seed funding, quantum hubs have been created all over the country, conferences have sprouted, and the various governments have created and modified a national strategy.

The secret ingredient is Professor Sir Peter Knight, a quantum guru who has chaired the Strategic Advisory Board of the UK National Quantum Technologies Programme since its inception in 2014. From his base at Imperial College a dozen years ago, he spearheaded cooperation between the different sectors, combining a friendly demeanour with a powerful ability to build consensus.

The government, which announced a £2bn package for quantum innovation in March, estimates it could boost productivity by 7% in the next two decades and create over 100,000 jobs in the process. Currently, there are over 350 UK-based companies involved in the different quantum disciplines, from networking to computing to sensors.

What many of them need is scaling up capital, the main challenge in the UK and Europe for all companies involved in technology.

Scale-up capital

This brings me to Scale-Up Capital 2026, a recent event put on by the Worshipful Company of Entrepreneurs at the behest of Alderman Alastair King DL FCSI(Hon), former Lord Mayor of the City of London and currently Master of the livery company.

In the inspirational setting of the London Stock Exchange (LSE), 14 promising companies pitched to investors for scale-up finance. Did it work?

Yes, according to the founder and CEO of one of the companies involved, who told me, “The event was great. We got three new investors interested and one that already knew us reached out to catch up and potentially join the round.”

Initiatives like this are vitally important for the UK, which, as noted in a recent Review article, has “one of the world’s strongest seed-stage start-up hubs, but when it comes to scaling those companies, the system breaks down”.

The size of the problem is immense. The Entrepreneurs Network mentioned in its latest newsletter that although over £17bn was invested in innovative British companies, fewer than 600 raised Series A or B funding (around £3.8bn). In addition, only about 7% of seed-funded start-ups progressed to securing institutional scale-up capital. Heading abroad for funds should not be the only solution.

However, there are measures aplenty to try and solve the problem, from the government changing the tax rules on private investment in non-quoted companies, to the LSE transforming its listing rules, to the Mansion House Accord, which aims to channel institutional moneys to venture capital. What they all need is a sense of urgency.

The UK is a source of innovation

To the Barbican Centre, that monstrous example of brutalist architecture from the 1970s, for a reception hosted by its chair, Sir William Russell, Lord Mayor of the City of London 2019–2021, and board member Sir Nick Lyons, chair of Standard Life.

It is planning a major overhaul under new CEO Abigail Pogson. Whether its distinctive look, what one could call ‘brick, darkness & confusion’, can be transformed is not clear. What is clear is that the arts centre is already buzzing, packed with guests spanning all ages, there to see contemporary film, listen to classical music, wander through art exhibitions and munch in its many cafes and restaurants.

A summer musical with Ariana Grande, a star of song and screen, will pack in the Millennial generation. The current Cole Porter musical, High Society, is already attracting an older crowd (your correspondent included), won over by classic songs about trying to forget a past lover or wanting to be a millionaire, and the changing mores of socialite Tracy Lord.

Let us end with her best line: “The time to make up your mind is never.” It addresses the personal transformation of her ex-husband, who becomes her second husband. In the same way, for those who have written off the UK as a source of innovative, large-scale companies, think again.

Quantum Matters: AI and Quantum Converge as Risks, Regulation and Energy Constraints Mount

Karina’s Column: 2026 Top Billing

‘Afan de protagonismo’ is a Spanish phrase, loosely translated as ‘an insatiable hunger for the limelight.’ It will dominate 2026 as the most powerful global leaders jostle for attention.

President Donald Trump’s isolationist/America First foreign policy, much touted in his days as a presidential candidate, has been flipped on its head with the ousting of President Nicolas Maduro and the plan for the US to "run" Venezuela.

This follows from the recently published US National Security Strategy, which established a revised Monroe Doctrine, an apparent turning inward to America’s ‘backyard’.

However, before concluding US attention will be focused on its neighbours, it is worth noting that in the second half of 2025 it bombed Iran, Syria and Nigeria. Additionally, in the first days of 2026 Trump threatened the Iranian regime with revenge if they killed protesters currently demonstrating in Tehran and other cities.

The corollary to Saturday’s military action is to deny Cuba the Venezuelan oil sold to it at knock-down rates. If around 40% of the island’s imported oil disappears, this could well spell the end of a regime – one that has failed to fulfil its population’s basic needs for many years.

What a coup that would be for Donald Trump! To bring Cuba back into the American sphere of influence would secure his legacy. There have been over 65 years of failed attempts ranging from President Kennedy’s Bay of Pigs to the CIA’s exploding cigars for Fidel Castro. It would also secure the Cuban-American vote.

It is not clear how the Venezuelan situation will play out. What is clear is that there will be a massive increase in refugee numbers, destabilising neighbours like Colombia. Foreign Direct Investment into countries where Trump disapproves of the leader will fall off a cliff. And US companies taking over oil production in Venezuela will need protection. US military ‘boots on the ground’ will not play well in the upcoming mid-term elections.

The National Security document used language that was more respectful of the Russians than the Europeans, but that won’t be enough to wean President Vladimir Putin’s off his ‘afan de protagonismo’ and lead him to accept a world order with pre-determined spheres of influence.

“Russia will continue to “export chaos”, in the words of Blaise Metreweli, the new head of MI6, the UK intelligence service. It continually denies blowing up Polish railway tracks, disrupting air travel with drones, cyberattacks, and creating polarisation with its disinformation factories.

The toppling of the Venezuelan regime and a de facto annexation of the country also gives Putin a green light in Ukraine. Additionally, it sends the wrong signal on Taiwan to President Xi Jing Ping of China.

His ‘afan de protagonismo’ has already been fed “simply by waiting for strategic gifts to come his way,” according to FT columnist Edward Luce. These range from the US climbdown on punitive tariffs, to Trump’s 180-degree turn on the export of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China, to the US administration’s openly targeting regime change in Europe.

The takeover of Taiwan now looks more justifiable in the context of ‘spheres of influence’, while the pressure is on Xi to show off China’s military prowess following the US’s remarkable demonstration of geopolitical power.

Meanwhile, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), an institution under threat from Trump’s clear lack of interest in Europe’s security, is stepping up its actions and rhetoric. Its top commander recently said that being more aggressive or proactive instead of reactive in response to cyberwarfare was under consideration.

It is likely that companies will become more involved in proactive measures against bad actors, no longer leaving cyber defence to overwhelmed intelligence services. The banking sector is reputed to already be active in offensive cyber operations, most likely with the connivance of the intelligent services. Expect Artificial Intelligence (AI) start-ups in that space to begin coming out of stealth mode.

In the words of a former top executive at GCHQ, “It is time to disrupt the bad guys.”

Also to be anticipated in 2026 is a deepening of ‘localisation’, a nationalist view of economic relations on the back of the shaky state of long-standing protective alliances.

Take Switzerland, which in December decided not to proceed with using US tech firm Palantir for government use. Accepting the services of a US tech company is, at least in one respect, not unlike accepting those of a Chinese one: excellent product, but you are putting yourself at the mercy of a state whose priorities in difficult times will not be yours.

The US government will funnel increased amounts into quantum technology firms in 2026, be it through grants, loans or equity stakes, aware of the dangers of another country taking the lead in this transformative technology. In fact, China is already perceived to lead in some areas like quantum communication. European countries, ranging from Germany to Spain, are likely to also invest in local quantum technology companies in an attempt to guarantee sovereignty.

Switzerland highlights another continuing trend, the realignment of the international order. A tweet from the federal government in December stated: “In light of the deteriorating security situation, the Swiss government is realigning Switzerland’s security policy.”

Might Switzerland ditch its two centuries old neutrality policy and join NATO? After all, Sweden did so in 2024. Neutral Ireland is looking very vulnerable, following cyberattacks on its health services and public sector websites credited to Russian cybercrime networks, even as naval intrusions and surveillance rose in 2025. As an island, its dependence on undersea cables is even more significant than that of countries that are part of a larger landmass.

The one certainty for 2026 is a continuing rise in the research and development of weapons. From December’s first time use of underwater drones by Ukraine to (reportedly) disable a submarine, to the ever-more-sophisticated AI used to programme human behaviour, technology will evolve at pace.

The consolation for this negative is that technology for good will also evolve, while not investing would be even more disastrous, a recipe for subservience to the will of others.

In September in Shanghai, President Xi and President Putin were caught talking about organ transplants and longevity. It would be advantageous for them and for President Trump, intent on strutting the world stage, to remember Macbeth’s famous lines:

Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more.

The City Quantum and AI Summit 2025 Videos

Defence Panel Discusses How to Bring Quantum & AI to Bear in a Hostile World

Insider Brief

• Senior defense leaders and technologists at The City Quantum & AI Summit in London said quantum and artificial intelligence will be decisive in maintaining NATO’s strategic advantage amid rising geopolitical tensions.

• Panelists including representatives from Multiverse Computing, Aquark Technologies, BAE Systems, and MBDA highlighted how quantum sensing, AI assurance, and collaboration between startups and defense contractors are reshaping deterrence and resilience.

• Speakers warned that Europe’s quantum ambitions are constrained by funding and regulation, emphasizing the need for faster innovation, stronger public-private partnerships, and sustained defense investment before it is too late.

At a time when technology defines national power, senior defense leaders and technologists say quantum and artificial intelligence could prove decisive in maintaining strategic advantage across the NATO alliance. 

Speaking at The City Quantum & AI Summit’s defense panel discussion chaired by General Sir Patrick Sanders, the high-level defence panel explored how quantum sensing, AI assurance and public-private collaboration are reshaping deterrence and resilience in an increasingly hostile world.The summit, one of the premier summits bringing together Quantum, Defense and the Financial Sector, was celebrating its Fifth Anniversary in London.

General Sanders, who led the discussion,  framed the debate with a historical perspective. Drawing on thinkers from Gramsci to Kissinger, he warned that nations and institutions risk “a strange defeat” when they fail to adapt to technological and ideological shifts. He argued that defense organizations must avoid this fate by embracing innovation at speed:

To that end, Sanders convened four leaders working at the frontiers of quantum and AI transformation: Enrique Lizaso of Multiverse Computing, Andrei Dragomir of Aquark Technologies, Rob Flanders of BAE Systems, and Edwin Bowden-Peters of MBDA.

A Dual Challenge: Competing and Securing

Rob Flanders, Head of Threat and Incident Response at BAE Systems, described a defense environment shaped by what he called a “dipolar threat landscape.” He pointed to active conflict on NATO’s borders and long-term strategic competition with China as defining pressures.

“So we’re faced with a literal war on the border, combined with a much longer term geostrategic threat that essentially sits behind lots of the technologies that we’re looking at, discussing and adopting today,” said Flanders. “So I think it’s from our perspective, very much a dipolar threat landscape that we need to be aware of and be concerned about.”

Flanders said that emerging capabilities like AI-assisted quantum systems demand rigorous assurance before being fielded. “In defense, high assurance isn’t optional,” he added, explaining that engineers must know the provenance of data that trains AI systems.

 “If you put garbage in, you might well get garbage out – and that’s the last thing you want on a strategic program,” Flanders added.

Quantum Sensing and the Return of Deterrence

For Andrei Dragomir, founder and CEO of Aquark Technologies, quantum sensing is already transforming how NATO nations approach navigation, timing, and infrastructure resilience. His company, the first quantum investment of the NATO Innovation Fund, builds compact cold-atom clocks and sensors that work in GPS-denied environments.

Dragomir said that the key advantage of quantum sensing is its ability to “collect good data rather than bad data” – eliminating noise at the source rather than filtering it afterward. That accuracy, he argued, underpins both deterrence and resilience.

“So, having that technology and using it in a proper way can definitely be like the next bow and arrow of defense,” said Dragomir. “It’s also an indirect capability, where if you can navigate in GPS denied environments, eventually your enemy is going to stop spoofing your GPS, because it’s pointless, and therefore you can still rely on the existing infrastructure that you would otherwise have relied on today, and I think it’s going to have a huge impact.”

He forecast that deployable quantum navigation systems could begin scaling within 12 to 36 months, emphasizing collaboration as essential to success.

“I think it’s collaboration that is absolutely essential at this point in time,” said Dragomir. “There’s no single player that can build towards a vision like this by themselves. We need to have our doors very, very open.”

Europe’s Quantum Investment Gap

Enrique Lizaso, CEO and co-founder of Multiverse Computing, offered a candid view of Europe’s position in the quantum race. His firm develops hybrid quantum-AI algorithms for banks, defense manufacturers, and governments. Lizaso argued that Europe’s problem is not talent or ideas, but financing and regulation.

“We have the technology, maybe even better,” said Lizaso, adding, “But the way to convert – to transform – that into something which is more than that, by which I mean create companies that are big enough – is a different way. This is a financial problem at the very, very, very core of the situation, particularly in Europe.”

He also pointed to new defense applications of AI model compression, including lightweight multimodal neural networks that can run on small devices and recognize objects in the field. However, he warned that overly restrictive data-use rules could delay such innovations.

Bridging the Gap Between Labs and Battlefields

Edwin Bowden-Peters, UK Technology Watch Lead at MBDA, underscored how innovation is accelerating beyond traditional defense boundaries. “Access to technology has been completely democratized,” he said, noting that tools once confined to military labs are now commonplace in consumer electronics.

MBDA, which has invested directly in Aquark, is testing new models of collaboration with startups. Bowden-Peters recalled that Aquark caught his team’s attention when they demonstrated a ruggedized quantum device that could be carried rather than confined to a lab bench.

“They cared about it being ruggedized and real world and so immediately we knew that they cared about the same things as us,” Bowden-Peters said. “And so then what we did is we funded an experiment, and we said, can we push this further?”

He added that defense must increase its risk appetite for performance — but never at the expense of safety. “If you come second in war, someone doesn’t go home,” he said. “That’s why we have to test to extremes.”

Investing Before It’s Too Late

General Sanders closed with a reminder that defense spending is not an indulgence but an insurance policy. In 1936, he noted, the U.K. spent 2.9% of GDP on defense; by 1939, that figure had risen to 10%, and by 1945, to 50%.

“The sums we’re talking about today  – half a percent, one percent of GDP  – are nothing,” he said. “Prevention is a hell of a lot cheaper than cure.”

The City Quantum & AI Summit - Race for Growth

Fortune favours the bold

Q&A: The Race for Growth — Five Years of The City Quantum & AI Summit

Editor’s Note: Over the last five years, The City Quantum and AI Summit, which takes place in the Mansion House in the heart of the City of London, has earned a reputation as a quantum conference that not only keeps its finger on the pulse of the rapidly emerging quantum technology landscape, but also one that provides an accessible forum for the field’s diverse community. Celebrating the UN’s International Year of Quantum, the Fifth Anniversary Summit will take place on October 8, 2025. Here, we chat with Karina Robinson, CEO of Radcliffe Advisory and the founder of this summit, to learn a little bit more about the upcoming 2025 The City Quantum and AI Summit, as well as add context to the fifth anniversary of one of quantum’s marquee events..

This year’s Summit is themed “Race for Growth.” What does growth mean in the context of quantum and AI, and why is now the moment to focus on it?

Our democracies are under threat from external sabotage, misinformation and governmental inability to deliver. The only way to avoid falling into the lure of the populists is for our economies to grow. Harnessing Quantum and AI is a way of achieving productivity gains and revenue increases. 

To celebrate its Fifth Anniversary, the Summit is publishing Race for Growth, a report with contributions from CEOs, Chairs, and other board members on how to boost our economies through Deep Tech and international collaboration. 

The speaker lineup this year includes more CEOs from financial and professional services than ever before. What message does that send about where quantum and AI are heading? 

Board members of financial and professional services are aware that, generally, they lack enough knowledge of how Quantum and AI will disrupt their companies and sectors. That awareness has been growing over the last few years. By insisting on the Summit’s principle of ‘no lingo, no jargon, plain language only,’ top executives are comfortable talking and learning publicly about Deep Tech’s impact.

Geopolitical shifts have reshaped the global landscape. How do international tensions and alliances affect the collaboration — or competition — in deep tech sectors like AI and quantum? And how does the Summit expect to navigate these new waters? 

The City Quantum & AI Summit will walk through the complex, evolving geopolitical maze with a light step! We have companies from the US, Europe, the UK and Taiwan present. The Trump presidency has upended traditional alliances, but collaboration is still a pre-requisite. We are especially focused on the UK and the EU working together more closely, with the US and democracies like Australia and Japan involved.

Defence and finance are rarely seen on the same stage, but you’ve made that blend a defining feature of the Summit. What’s the logic behind that mix? 

There are two reasons for the unique mix.  From the moment Ukraine was invaded by Russia three years ago it became obvious that, firstly, we needed to fight for our democracies rather than take them for granted, and secondly, that defence spending would accelerate exponentially. This was a great, albeit tragic, opportunity to advance the science. The results will be dual-use applications – from logistics to navigation – on a par with what came out of the Apollo Space Mission. 

Additionally, finance is a pre-requisite for firms on the edge of innovation, while financiers need to be exposed to investing opportunities. 

The Summit was built on three founding principles: no jargon, gender-balanced panels, and accessibility. In an era of accelerating complexity, are those principles more relevant than ever?

In this day and age it is indispensable to be understood by those outside your group. Gender-balanced panels are even more crucial today than they were five years ago, when the Summit began. The backlash against the excesses of woke politics is being used as an excuse to undermine basic Diversity & Inclusion and that needs to be combatted. Lastly, the Summit is streamed for free and all panels are then posted on social media. 

How does the historic setting — the Mansion House and the presence of the 696th Lord Mayor — shape the tone and ambition of the Summit? 

It is great fun to host a conference on breakthrough Quantum & AI in a historic palace with gold table-settings and chandeliers-a-plenty, rather than the usual soulless conference centre! On a more serious note, the Mansion House’s convening power is legendary, and key to attracting senior leaders from a wide variety of sectors who are open to solving the world’s problems. The halls of the Mansion House represent the historic location where top financiers have met for generations to finance world trade and innovation, and is the perfect setting to combine both them and the future leaders of technology and science under one roof.

What role do you see for the UK, and The City in particular, in driving international leadership in deep tech over the next five years?

The City of London has been at the forefront of financing progress for centuries. This Summit keeps the flame alive!

Finally, with tech leaders, financial giants, and defence strategists all under one roof, what would you like attendees to walk away thinking, feeling, or doing differently?

The outcome is all about cross-sectoral collaboration and cross-national collaboration, both in finance and defense. I hope all of us joining together at the Summit, be it in person or online, are able to see the growth potential of connecting with people in all fields.

What have you been most proud of about previous iterations of the Summit?

I am most proud of bringing together such diverse sectors. And when people tell you they found a job, an investing opportunity, or funding for their company at the Summit, I couldn’t be happier!

Current City Quantum Agenda

Quantum Matters: What World (Dis) Order Means For Quantum Technologies

The National People’s Congress (NPC) session in Beijing last month allocated an 8.3% increase year on year for Chinese technology spend. In the US, technology spending is due to increase by 6.1% in 2025 to $2.7 trillion, according to Forrester.

Before the upheaval brought about by the new US administration, forecasts from firms like Forrester’s were relied upon, while those from the NPC and any China institute were deemed untrustworthy, subject to government manipulation.

In April 2025, with the Trump government well ensconced and Elon Musk in charge of taking a “chainsaw” to government spending through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), forecasting for the US is inevitably less accurate than for China.  

This is only one example of the global economic earthquake caused by the US government, with daily after-shocks as tariffs are applied/suspended/modified. With federal spending cuts ranging from a pre-election goal of $2 trillion to a recent claim of $150 billion in 2026, there is no point in putting numbers to how quantum technologies will be affected by the new world disorder.

Rather, a focus on four areas yields some insights.

Investment

Markets are in risk-off mode. This means raising capital for the quantum industry – be it venture or an IPO – is already much more difficult.

If venture firms cannot realise assets (be it any form of Deep Tech, not just quantum), they will hold off from supporting financing rounds. There may well be a cash shortfall, not least for firms that were counting on a public market listing through a SPAC or IPO.

Additionally, even if there is a bounce in markets, not least due to existing large pools of investible capital, it is doubtful those funds will go into a sector as risky as quantum.

Of note is Jensen Huang’s about-turn on the value of quantum after his dismissive comments in January lead to a sell-off in quoted quantum companies. The CEO of Nvidia has now allocated funds to the industry and set up a quantum hub in Boston with Quantinuum, Harvard and others.

The larger Tech companies like Nvidia, Google and Microsoft should see their comparative power rise. They may not have the best research or results, but the firms that do are smaller and more quantum-only focused, thus in a more precarious position, with fewer financing options.

Expect Big Tech to flex its financial muscles with M&A.

Tariffs and the supply chain

Tariff turmoil will skewer the global supply chain. It is not apparent yet.

The geographic spread of the supply chain looks likely to lead to delays in investigations and Proofs of Concept (POC) – some of the firms are not 100% sure about where all their components come from, plus there are limited numbers of suppliers for many of the components in the quantum supply chain.

One UK firm points out that their primary competitors are in Asia, thus giving them an advantage in dealing with the US due to the relatively lower 10% UK tariffs. Momentary advantages should not be counted upon to last.

The tariffs turmoil is also adding major uncertainty to exports. The head of supply chain at another UK firm notes that exporting a QC is a sequence of deployments where some of those part shipments are not directly ‘quantum computers’ in their own right, such as fridges, and could be subject to higher tariffs.

This is not only to and from the US, but also other nations, including allied ones, as their reaction to tariffs becomes another factor in the business equation.

Expect cost increases and clogged up business decisions.  

International Collaboration

The picture is mixed when it comes to international collaborations. Over the last five years troublesome export controls became more prevalent, but they were aimed at specific countries like China and Iran. Now there is a growing lack of trust spreading to collaborations involving the American government, with knock on effects for American firms, which will lead to delays and upheaval.

On the other hand, in Europe and the UK there is a growing awareness of the requirement to cooperate more within Europe, and with democracies like South Korea and Japan.

Expect more cooperation announcements, especially in defence.

Defence

The increased risk of wars on several fronts is, unfortunately, a bright spot for quantum technologies globally, given that almost all applications are dual use. In the words of a general in a private meeting, “You need to digitalise your kill chain.” All Deep Tech will receive more funds from defence, while Western society’s private funding of the industry is well en route to overcoming ESG impediments.

Defence in the US

The picture is mixed for the US. On the one hand, on April 11th President Donald Trump announced that the upcoming fiscal 2026 defence budget would be around $1 trillion, a major boost from $892 billion for fiscal 2026.

However, at a time of major cost-cutting in government, and daily policy flip flops, this number may well change, while the many firings of career defence and security officials are bound to inject delays in decision-making, as well as uninformed choices in weapons commissioning.

Additionally, as the US government slashes Research and Development, universities are seeing funding cuts and a lack of new job openings. In a recent survey by scientific bible Nature magazine, 75% of the respondents said they were considering leaving the US and were looking for jobs in Europe and Canada as preferred destinations.

Anecdotally, one quantum firm with operations in the US and the UK was forced to locate a new branch in the latter rather than the former. The talent available in Europe and the UK was not willing to move to the US; the talent available in the US was willing to move to the UK. This marks a major reversal from decades of the US’s number one spot in attracting talent.

Expect the battle for skills in Deep Tech to skew towards countries other than the US.

Defence in Europe and the UK

The picture in defence for the UK and Europe is rosier, if not entirely so.

The negative is dependence on US military and other technology. But the positives are the much-delayed recognition that Article 5 of NATO, which states that an attack on one is an attack on all, is now defunct as far as the US is concerned, and thus the UK and Europe must step up their military spending.

Action has been taken relatively quickly, with the European Union (EU) coming up with a €150 billion joint borrowing fund. This could mobilise up to €800 billion in defence spending, according to the Commission. The stricture that projects must come from a minimum of two-country cooperation is set to boost inter-European projects.

The UK is currently not eligible but is likely to sign a security pact with the EU that will lead to its admittance.  In the meantime, it is stepping up its own military spending as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s government pivots to creating growth and jobs through defence and technology, and overall moves closer to Europe.

In fact, what looked like the insoluble problem of Europe and the UK’s paltry growth may well find its solution is an increased emphasis on the defence sector. Productivity in the UK aerospace, defence, security and space sector is 42% higher than the UK average, according to ADS Group, the trade association.

Expect higher growth in Europe and the UK.

Karina Robinson is Founder of The City Quantum & AI Summit and Senior Advisor to Multiverse Computing. The opinions expressed are her own.

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Societal Attitudes on Defence Spending and Investment Need to Change

In the face of new state security threats, society needs to be more willing to accept the role of the defence sector.

Weapons maim. Weapons kill. They do not distinguish between children and combatants. However uncomfortable, we need to have a national conversation about producing them and financing them.

There is only one option if we are to avoid war, and that is to prepare for it.

Calls for conscription, as the UK’s most senior army officer, General Sir Patrick Sanders promoted in February, are a distraction, especially in countries such as the UK and Germany which do not share a border with Russia. That heightened sense of danger exists in Finland, which received a wave of Yemeni and Syrian refugees in recent years, courtesy of Russia’s actions. Or consider the Baltic states: in January they agreed to build defensive installations on their borders with Russia and Belarus.

For those countries bordering Russia, there are lessons to learn from Sweden, NATO’s newest member. The invasion of Ukraine was what finally pushed the country – its maritime border with Russia subject to regular submarine incursions – to abandon almost 200 years of neutrality and officially join the Alliance. This was not done through a referendum, but a parliamentary vote. As a top Swedish foreign affairs official said at the time in a private conversation, this ensured there was less opportunity for the enemy to launch a major disinformation campaign aimed at polarising the country.

Clear political leadership is an important component in changing the national conversation. France’s President Emmanuel Macron is becoming more combative, abandoning France’s historically more equivocal position towards Russia. The same is true of Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister. Spain’s Pedro Sanchez has taken a different stance: he asked EU leaders to avoid using the word ‘war’ in their summit declarations as people felt threatened.

A sense of threat is exactly what is needed. Governments must reveal more of the ‘liminal’ warfare – operations that are difficult to attribute and often non-violent – to their populations. It is no coincidence that, on the same day in March, the US and the UK publicly revealed a series of ‘prolific’ cyber attacks by Beijing over the past few years.

Reaching out to the civilian population at large is another strategy. The South by Southwest film, music and tech festival, which gathers technologists and creatives and takes place in March in Austin, Texas, this year counted the US Army and Collins Aerospace as sponsors. Demonstrations and a boycott by a handful of artists did not stop the festival going ahead with a massive turnout.

Calls for conscription are a distraction, especially in countries such as the UK and Germany which do not share a border with Russia

An education campaign is necessary within the Deep Tech community – a Silicon Valley entrepreneur pointed out that managers above a certain age did not see an issue with working on military technology, while younger employees brought up in the relatively peaceful era after the fall of the Berlin Wall were opposed.

The first steps have been taken. Venture capital investment into defence technology doubled to $33 billion in the five years to 2023. And organisations such as Mission Link in the US bring together the defence establishment and tech start-ups in a bid to ensure the slow-moving bureaucracy and big-company favouritism of government procurement can be side-stepped.

Worth noting is that Katrina Mulligan, former chief of staff to the secretary of the US Army, was hired by OpenAI this February. The Chat-GPT maker in January altered its usage policies to allow ‘military and warfare’ applications. Again, the protests that arose on the back of the change ultimately petered out.

A change of mentality is also needed in the investor community. Other than private sector funds specialising in defence or government entities such as the UK’s National Security Strategic Investment Fund, institutional investors face the conundrum of ESG (environmental, social and governance) categorisation. It is ludicrous that defence is classified alongside pornography and tobacco as a no-go area, but changing the criteria would be a public relations disaster for individual firms, noted a Scandinavian fund manager who advises on ethics in a private conversation.

Hence moves to amend OECD guidelines, for instance, or the capacity of EU institutions to buy weapons using its shared budget, are a step in the right direction. Deeper pools of capital are necessary: NATO’s European members face a shortfall of €56 billion a year to meet the Alliance’s defence spending target, which at 2% of GDP is, in any case, arguably too low for a threatening new era.

William Burns, director of the CIA, wrote recently in Foreign Affairs that: ‘Success will depend on blending traditional human intelligence with emerging technologies’.

To achieve this, governments, academia and companies need to work on a civilian acceptance of a significant increase in the manufacture and funding of arms production, both offensive, defensive and dual use, through public campaigns and national conversations. Without civil society’s agreement, current funding will not suffice to modernise the military capability of the West enough to, at the very least, deter attacks.

Governments, academia and companies need to work on a civilian acceptance of a significant increase in the manufacture and funding of arms production

The narrative needs to be altered. The Apollo space programme of the 1960s and 70s, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the US military’s technology innovator, have markedly contributed to society – from autonomous cars to the internet. Ultimately, virtually all technology is dual use, from drones to lasers to robots.

Initiatives such as Hacking for the Ministry of Defence (H4MoD), which originated at Stanford University, encourages university students to develop innovative ideas in response to real-world defence problems.

It is not an impossible feat. Ideas that were taboo are now mainstream, whether in defence – such as Sweden joining NATO – or for other social issues, such as society’s acceptance of mental health or the right of women to vote.

‘I want my kids to live in an open society’, says Scott Faris, a successful entrepreneur who felt the call to return to lead Infleqtion, a quantum and AI firm that works with the UK’s defence technology company QuinetiQ and DARPA in the US, and just moved on to lead Equlipse Quantum.

When North Korea has the capacity to knock a satellite out of the sky, hostile countries can buy lethal equipment on the web, and Russian President Vladimir Putin credibly threaten the use of nuclear weapons as a response to the West’s support of Ukraine, Polish leader Donald Tusk’s words sound less alarmist and increasingly true:

‘I know it sounds devastating, especially to people of the younger generation, but we have to mentally get used to the arrival of a new era. The pre-war era’.

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